Do the math: Playoff berths sort themselves out
It’s case of addition by subtraction as pretenders separate from contenders
Now, the math is easy. The College Football Playoff selection committee will never be able to make five conference champions go into four spots, but a wild two days of games over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend made the equation about as simple as possible.
Oklahoma, whose regular season is over at 11-1, is the Big 12’s one true champion after walloping Oklahoma State 58-23 on Saturday. The Sooners are in.
Also in: the winner of the Big Ten title game this Saturday between 12-0 Iowa and 11-1 Michigan State.
No. 1 Clemson is in if it beats one-loss North Carolina in the ACC championship game on Saturday.
And Alabama merely needs to beat punchless Florida in the Southeastern Conferencetitle game Saturday to be the only team to make a repeat appearance in the 2-year-old playoff.
The selection committee was spared the anguish of considering independent Notre Dame, which lost on a last-play field goal to Stanfordon Saturday night, suffering its second loss. The Irish are good enough to play with anybody in the country but will have to settle for an at-large spot in a New Year’s Six bowl— Peach or Fiesta.
Speaking of Stanford, the Cardinal are clearly on the outside as they head to nearby Santa Clara to play Southern Californiain the Pac-12 title game. With two losses, Stanford needs chaos. And by chaos, we mean losses by either Clemson or Alabama, or both.
Let’s consider that chaos. A loss by the Tigers or Tide brings Ohio State, Stanford and North Carolina into the mix.
Ohio State’s case: The Buckeyes just throttled Michigan, finally looking like the No. 1 team we’ve known lurked inside them all season. Based on previous CFP rankings, we know the committee values the “eye test” when talking about Ohio State, whose only loss came on a last-play field goal to Michigan State. Stanford’s case: The Cardinal would be a conference champ, and the committee could heavily weigh that in a comparison to Ohio State, which didn’t win its division. Stanford’s win over Notre Dame is also better than any Buckeyes’ victory.
North Carolina’s case: The Tar Heels would have the best win in the country— beating No. 1 Clemson — and be on a 12-game winning streak. Now the case against them: Their one loss came against woeful South Carolina, and two of North Carolina’s wins came against teams from the second-tier Football Championship Series.
As for Florida? If the Gators somehow score enough to beat Alabama, they would be a two-loss SEC champ. In many cases, that would be playoff-worthy. But a team that needed overtime to beat Florida Atlantic and then lost 27-2 to Florida State wouldn’t really be able to mount much of a complaint if excluded.
Chaos prediction: The committee could not ignore Ohio State. This week’s key games
Michigan State vs. Iowa (5 p.m. Saturday, Indianapolis, FOX): Iowa’s best attributes are run blocking, quarterback decision- making and turnover margin. Not sexy, but if the undefeated Hawkeyes beat Michigan State for all the Big Ten marbles, don’t worry about their lack of prettiness; embrace what would be an amazing story.
Alabama vs. Florida (1 p.m. Saturday, Atlanta, CBS): We’ll just go ahead and set the over-under number for the Gators’ total yards at 225. But if Florida comes up with a couple of turnovers, Alabama’s collars could begin to tighten in the SEC title game.
Clemson vs. North Carolina (5 p.m. Saturday, Charlotte, N.C., ABC): Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams has the elusiveness to turn nothing into something against the rock-solid Tigers defense. Clemsonquarterback Deshaun Watson made his first career start versus UNC early last season, passing for 435 yards and six touchdowns.
Stanford vs. USC (4:45 p.m. Saturday, Santa Clara, Calif., ESPN): Stanford won 41-31 in Los Angeles on Sept. 19, but that USC team was coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans are more of a run-first outfit under interim coach Clay Helton and will try to match the Cardinal’s power and ball control.
Houston vs. Temple (9 a.m. Saturday, Houston, ABC): The Cougars’ super offense goes against the Owls’ excellent defense, and the winner of the American Athletic Conference title game will earn the Group of Five’s berth in a major New Year’s bowl.