Florida-missouri matchup points to under — big time
Generating offense struggle for Gators
Florida hasn’t seen a total as high as the 61½ points for Saturday’s game at Missouri since 2010. In fact, during the seven-year stretch since the Gators last saw a total in the 60s, the highest tally they have seen is 56½ in 2014.
Let’s capitalize on this terrible number with a strong play on the under.
Florida’s past three games have produced combined scores of 33, 36 and 49 points, with the Gators managing 16, 17 and seven points. They’ve dealt with abysmal quarterback play since Tim Tebow took his last snap at the Sugar Bowl in January 2010.
Florida has had only five totals in the 50s over the past two seasons, with the highest closing at 52½ points. The under has cashed at a 4-1 clip in those games.
The Gators are ranked No. 113 in the nation out of 130 FBS schools in total offense and scoring offense and are No. 111 in passing yards.
Making matters worse for this pedestrian unit is the season-ending injury suffered last week by star running back Malik Davis. Also, Florida’s best wide receiver, Tyrie Cleveland, hasn’t been the same since Sept. 30, when he suffered a high ankle sprain in a 38-24 win over Vanderbilt.
Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has thrown 18 TD passes with two interceptions in his past four games. But he isn’t facing Idaho or Connecticut’s defense.
How many times have the Gators had at least 62 combined points in their past 43 games? Five.
Five more plays (home team in CAPS): ■ Syracuse (+7) over FLORIDA STATE: Doak Campbell Stadium will have one of its smallest crowds in the past three decades when the Orange take the field against the Seminoles, the nation’s only winless team ATS at 0-5-2. Dino Babers’ team is 3-0 ATS on the road and had a good shot at winning each of those games outright at Louisiana State, North Carolina State and Miami. Syracuse has had two weeks to prepare. The Seminoles didn’t hit rock bottom Oct. 27 in their 35-3 loss at Boston College. That comes Saturday when the Orange win outright as a plus-220 money-line underdog.
■ South Carolina (+24) over GEORGIA: This is a flat scenario for the Bulldogs, who were gunning for Florida and have Auburn on deck. South Carolina is on a 4-0-1 ATS run as an underdog with four outright wins. Georgia will stay unbeaten, but the Gamecocks will comfortably cover this inflated spread.
■ Southern Mississippi (+7) over TENNESSEE: The Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS, and the Volunteers have limped to a 2-6 spread ledger. Tennessee is 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
■ CALIFORNIA (-7) over Oregon State: The Golden Bears are on a 4-1
ATS surge at home. The Beavers have been a disaster on the road, losing 38-10 at Southern California, 52-23 at Washington State and 58-27 at Colorado State.
■ Western Kentucky (+11) over Vanderbilt: The Commodores are 3-7 ATS in 10 games as a home favorite under coach Derek Mason. The Hilltoppers are on a 14-7-1 ATS run as a road underdog and on an 8-4-1 ATS uptick as a double-digit underdog. The past two meetings were decided by a total of three points.
1-4 against the spread 27-19-1
Brian Edwards of Vegasinsider. com and Brianedwardssports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @ vegasbedwards on Twitter.
Last week: Season:
■ Denver at Philadelphia: The Broncos are on a 3-7-1 slump against the spread overall and an 0-5 ATS skid on the road. The Eagles are on a 9-3 ATS run at home. Edge: Eagles.
■ Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: The Giants are
0-3 ATS at home this season, and they’re on a 16-7 under run in the regular season. The Rams are on a 3-1 ATS run on the road and a 7-2 over uptick. Edge: Rams.
■ Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Saints are rolling with five straight wins overall and four of five covers. The Buccaneers are on a 1-7-1 spread skid, 0-51 ATS in their past six. Edge: Saints.
■ Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS at home this season and 1-6
ATS in their past seven home games. Jacksonville is riding a 23-12 over run. Cincinnati is on a 3-8-1 spread slide on the road and 2-6 ATS skid as an underdog. Edge: Slight to over. ■ Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons are on a 2-6 ATS slump, going 0-4 ATS in their past four. They’re also 1-3 ATS on the road after going 7-1 ATS as a visitor last season. The under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s games this season after the over went 16-3 in Falcons games last season. The Panthers are 0-3 ATS this season and on a 1-6 ATS slide at home overall. The under is 7-1 in the past eight meetings. Edge: Slight to Falcons and under.
■ Indianapolis at Houston: The Colts are 1-4 vs. the line in their past five away games. Indianapolis has gone over the total in its past five road games, and the over is 5-0 in Houston’s past five games. The Texans are on a 5-1 ATS run overall. Edge: Texans and over. ■ Baltimore at Tennessee:
The Ravens are on a 2-4 ATS skid overall and a 3-8 ATS slide on the road. The Titans are on a 6-1 ATS uptick at home. The over is on a 17-8-1 run in Tennessee games. Edge: Titans and over.
■ Arizona at San Francisco: The Niners are on a 3-8 ATS slump at home. The over is on a 7-4 uptick in San Francisco games. The Cardinals are on a 4-13 ATS slide, including a 1-6 ATS skid this season. Edge: Slight to 49ers and over.
■ Washington at Seattle:
The over is on a 22-6 run in Redskins games. Washington is on a 0-4 spread skid overall, but is riding a 10-4 ATS run on the road. Edge: Over and slight to Redskins.
■ Kansas City at Dallas: The Chiefs are on a 14-3 ATS run in their past 17 regular-season games away from Arrowhead Stadium. The over is 6-1 in Kansas City’s past seven road games. The Cowboys are on a 2-5 ATS slide at home. The over is on an 8-4-1 run in Dallas home games. Edge: Chiefs and over.
■ Oakland at Miami: The Dolphins are on a 4-2-2 ATS uptick at home. Miami is on a 15-8 over run. The Raiders are on an 0-3 ATS skid on the road after going 11-2 ATS in their previous 13 regular-season games away from Oakland Coliseum. Edge: Slight to Dolphins.
■ Detroit at Green Bay (Monday): The Packers are 0-2 ATS since Aaron Rodgers went down, but had covered six of their previous seven games at Lambeau Field. The over is 9-2 in Green Bay’s past 11 games, but the Packers went under in their past two. The Packers have won and covered the past three meetings. The Lions are on a 3-0 over uptick. Edge: Slight to over.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet. com).