How Nevada’s elections could affect the nation
As Nevada goes, so may go the nation, says UNLV associate history professor Michael Green. The election of President Donald Trump in 2016 was only the second time in a century that the winner of the Electoral College didn’t receive Nevada’s electoral votes. Even then, Nevada’s choice carried the popular vote. Where Maine was once the bellwether for national elections, Green said, Nevada has taken its place in history. “Nevada doesn’t quite fit the old adage, ‘as Maine goes so goes the nation,’ ” he says, “but as Nevada goes, it is possible to theorize the nation might be going with it.” Carl Bunce, the chairman of the Clark County Republican Party; Sarah Abel, Nevada Democratic Party spokesperson; and Green weigh in on how Nevada’s November election may register nationally.
Nevada’s effect on Congress
Nevada has two House seats in play, with Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen looking to challenge Republican Sen. Dean Heller (Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen is not seeking re-election amid accusations he harassed a former campaign staffer).
Scenario in the House: To flip the House, Democrats would need to pick up more than 20 seats nationally, in addition to retaining the 193 seats they hold.
Scenario in the Senate: Democrats are defending more than twice as many seats in the Senate nationally as Republicans.
Projected outcome: A slew of Republicans are retiring from Congress, but some are in safe districts that Republicans are unlikely to lose.
“We have two House races that are up in the air, but I don’t think they’re as important nationally except for one thing: How many House seats will it take for Democrats to get control, if indeed they can?” Green says. “That’s what makes Rosen vs. Heller so significant. Most political experts see it as one of the few shots for the Democrats.”
Bunce said in an email that a Republican majority is important to check Democrats. Heller blamed Democrats for the
Senate’s failure to confirm Trump’s judicial nominees.
“Nevada’s upcoming elections are important to our nation in order to retain the makeup of the Congress in favor of President Trump’s policies and legislative agenda in the coming years, especially in the Senate, where it is very close,” Bunce said.
Trump recently helped clear the primary field slightly for Heller by pushing Danny Tarkanian into the race for Congressional District 3, a competitive district represented by Rosen. Abel says the