How to win in 2018? Swing
Paper suggests both parties reach beyond base in midterms
WASHINGTON — When President Donald Trump stumps for Republicans running for Congress in the midterms or special elections, he focuses on ginning up enthusiasm among the GOP base — in keeping with standard campaign procedure.
A new paper by the bipartisan Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, however, suggests that playing to the party base may be the wrong strategy for the 2018 midterm elections for both parties, but especially for the GOP, and particularly in Nevada.
If Democrats flip more than 24 House seats, they can win control of the House. “Tipping the Scales” author Henry Olsen combed through the data and found that Democratic candidates should try to appeal to “Romney-clinton” voters — those who supported Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, but Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
If Republicans want to prevail, they need to reach out to swing voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 before voting for Trump in 2016. However, 44 percent of those “Obama-trump” voters don’t know whom they’ll support in 2018, Olsen wrote, or do not plan to vote for either party’s candidates, which is more than say they will vote for GOP candidates.
Olsen sees Sen. Dean Heller, R-nev., as particularly vulnerable because Nevada “is a state that’s got both types of swing voters” — with “Obamatrump” voters residing outside metropolitan areas and “Romney-clinton” voters in affluent locales.
“If Dean Heller wants to win re-election, he has to talk to both groups at the same time,” Olsen said, which he warned also presents the opportunity of alienating both groups.
Brookings Institution senior fellow William A. Galston, who served as Deputy Assistant to President Bill Clinton for domestic policy, told the Review-journal that Olsen’s approach resonated.
“What strikes me as significant is how many Democrats are running campaigns tailored for their states or districts,” he said.
Political observers are gazing at Tuesday’s race in Ohio’s 12th congressional district as a gauge for which party will win in November. Trump won the district by nine points in 2016, but the race between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’connor was too close to call Tuesday night.
In an attempt to clinch the race for the GOP, Trump held a rally for Balderson Saturday night. But Trump may not have helped the GOP candidate when he mocked the intelligence of former Cleveland Cavaliers star Lebron James on Twitter as payback for James’ assertion on CNN that Trump is trying to divide the country.
Bill Whalen, of Stanford’s Hoover Institution, said that Trump’s presence can be a mixed bag. When Trump stumps for candidates, the rally is all about Trump. It’s not an easy balancing act trying to woo the Trump base and supporters of Ohio GOP Gov. John Kasich, a strident Trump critic, Whalen said.
Contact Debra J. Saunders at dsaunders@reviewjournal. com or 202-662-7391. Follow @ Debrajsaunders on Twitter.