Stanford’s many weapons should take care of Ducks
Doak Walker winner looks for bounceback
Bryce Love, last year’s Doak Walker Award winner as the nation’s premier running back, managed 29 rushing yards against San Diego State and did not play against California-davis.
Yet Stanford is 2-1 against the spread and has ascended to No. 7 in the polls. Most people are just getting familiar with Stanford’s other offensive standouts in tight end Kaden Smith, wide receiver J.J. Arcega-whiteside and quarterback K.J. Costello. The defense also has not allowed more than 10 points in a game despite losing arguably its four best players from 2017.
Meanwhile, Oregon put up just 35 points last week against a San Jose State team that had given up at least 40 in 10 of its past 14 games.
The Cardinal crushed the Ducks 49-7 last year when Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert was out, so the Ducks will be looking for revenge. But is Herbert and playing at home worth 40 points?
Love also will be motivated after missing last week with an undisclosed injury. The Cardinal need this game in order to challenge Washington in the Pac-12 North. I like Stanford as a 2-point road favorite.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Mississippi State (-9½) over KENTUCKY:
If the Bulldogs had a good passing game, they’d be capable of winning a championship. If you ranked every team in the country by its combined ability on the offensive and defensive lines, Mississippi State easily would be in the top 10. Bully ball matches up well against Kentucky, which runs more than 63 percent of the time. Kentucky RB Benny Snell rushed for a regular-season career-low 18 yards in last year’s 45-7 loss to Mississippi State. The Wildcats have added former Oregon QB Terry Wilson, who is slippery as a runner. Otherwise these rosters are much the same as they were last year. Mississippi State can win by three touchdowns.
South Carolina is 8-0 against Vanderbilt in the 2010s. The Commodores haven’t come within a field goal since 2008. The market has moved in opposite directions for these two teams since the preseason, with Georgia embarrassing South Carolina and Vanderbilt nearly upsetting Notre Dame. But it’s not fun playing Georgia this year. I still think South Carolina is the second-best team in the SEC East, and coach Will Muschamp has had an extra week to prepare for Vanderbilt after Hurricane Florence canceled the Gamecocks’ game against Marshall.
I took Mississippi State big against Kansas State two weeks ago, so I wasn’t surprised with the result (the Bulldogs won, 31-10). The market was surprised, though, and I think it has
South Carolina (-2½) over VANDERBILT: Kansas State (+16½) over WEST VIRGINIA:
overcorrected. West Virginia QB Will Grier is outstanding and may lead the country in passing yards per game this year. But I still don’t trust the Mountaineers defense, and a comfortable win over Tennessee to start the season taught us nothing. Wildcats coach Bill Snyder is 24-9 ATS as a road underdog in the past decade, and Kansas State hasn’t lost multiple games in a season by more than 20 points since 2009.
Not only is Florida State 0-3 ATS this season, but the Seminoles have failed to cover the closing number by a combined 78 points. This is a big number for a team with one of the worst offensive lines in the Power Five operating against one of the best defensive lines in the Group of Five.
1-4
5-10
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
Northern Illinois (+10½) over FLORIDA STATE: Last week: Season:
Here are three games to watch Saturday and three best bets for college football Week 4.
Games to watch
Stanford (-2) at Oregon
The Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love” doesn’t apply to Stanford.
A year after running back Bryce Love finished as the Heisman Trophy runner-up, the Cardinal (3-0) have relied on a balanced attack led by quarterback K.J. Costello and wideout J.J. Arcegawhiteside and the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (7.7 points per game allowed).
The Ducks haven’t played anybody. They are coming off a 35-22 home win over San Jose State in which they were 43-point favorites against arguably the worst team in the country,.
“Oregon looks like an overvalued team,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Stanford is steady Eddie.”
Handicapper Paul Stone, off to an 11-4 ATS start in the Reviewjournal’s College Challenge, likes the Cardinal to win and cover. Stone (@Paulstonesports) noted that Oregon’s schedule is rated No. 215 by Jeff Sagarin, who includes FCS teams in his ratings for USA Today.
“I’m concerned about Oregon’s readiness for this talented an opponent,” Stone said.
Texas A&M at Alabama (-26)
The Aggies took Clemson to the wire in a 28-26 loss and are still getting almost four TDS from the rolling Crimson Tide.
“That just goes to show you Alabama’s power rating is through the roof. This is about as high a rated team as I’ve ever seen,” Bogdanovich said. “In the past, they’ve always been a smothering defense and halfway decent offense, but now they’ve got an offense that is literally off the charts to go with the defense. They are in uncharted territory.”
Stone recommends a play on the Crimson Tide in the first half, where they’re 16-point favorites at William Hill. Alabama has outscored its first three foes 117-7 in the first half.
“They’ve come out of the gate and led by at least 28 points in all three of those games,” Stone said. Texas Christian (-3) at Texas
The Horned Frogs are coming off a physical 40-28 loss to Ohio State, and the Longhorns are off a 37-14 win over Southern California.
But Stone discounts Texas’ win over the struggling Trojans and likes TCU to bounce back and beat the Longhorns for the fifth straight season. The Horned Frogs have outscored Texas 153-33 the last four seasons.
“This is a case of one coach,
Gary Patterson, having the Longhorns’ number,” Stone said. “TCU is the better team right now, and coming off a loss will have the Horned Frogs in an especially bad demeanor.”
Best bets
IOWA STATE (-19) over Akron
Handicapper Wes Reynolds is tied with Stone with an 11-4 ATS record and likes the Cyclones to rip the Zips after hard-fought 10-point losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
Akron is coming off a comeback win at Northwestern in which it scored three defensive TDS.
“That’s so hard to duplicate in back-to-back weeks,” said Reynolds (@Wesreynolds1). “Now you get an Akron team riding high, and they have to go back on the road. That’s always a tough spot.
“I like Iowa State looking forward to a team it can beat that’s such a drop in class from playing Iowa and Oklahoma.” IOWA (+3½) over Wisconsin
Reynolds also leans to the Hawkeyes as home underdogs, especially if the line moves to
3½, which it did Friday at CG Technology sports book.
“Iowa has been disrespected this year,” Reynolds said. “They’re getting overlooked.”
The Hawkeyes have won and covered all three games this season. The Badgers are 0-3 ATS.
“Iowa is playing lights out.
The home ’dog looks live to me,” Bogdanovich said. “Wisconsin looks like it’s missing something.”
Ohio (+8) over CINCINNATI
Stone said the Bearcats are overrated because of their seasonopening win at UCLA and shouldn’t be laying more than a TD to its instate rival, which is coming off a loss at Virginia.
“I had Cincinnati as just a 2½-point favorite. I saw some value when it crossed over 7,” he said. “I look to take teams when they’re off a loss often times. Especially early in the year when they’ve still got their hopes and goals in front of them, I think a team tends to bring forth a stronger collective energy and effort.”
Todd Dewey