Atlantic’s hurricane season expected to be near normal

WASHINGTON — The Atlantic Ocean hurricane season is off to yet another early start, but U.S. weather officials say it should be a near-normal year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday predicted there would be nine to 15 named storms. It said four to eight of them would become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.

Acting NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said a current El Niño, a periodic natural warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But other forces, including warmer-than-normal seawater, counter that.

Last year had 15 named storms, with eight hurricanes and two major ones, Florence and Michael. Those two big storms hit the United States and together killed 38 people and caused $49 billion in damage. The Atlantic basin averages 12 named storms a year, with six becoming hurricanes and three becoming major storms.

NOAA said there’s a 40 percent chance of a normal season, with 30 percent chances of both stronger and weaker seasons.

“That’s still a lot of activity,” said NOAA forecaster Gerry Bell. “You need to start to prepare for hurricane season now.”

Hurricane season traditionally starts June 1, but this week subtropical storm Andrea briefly popped up, marking the fifth straight year a named storm came in May or earlier. (Forecasters name storms with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.)

Some other nongovernment forecasters predict a weaker storm season than NOAA.

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 13 named storms, five to become hurricanes and two to hit major status. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach predicted that overall the Atlantic season will be about three-quarters strong as a normal season.

Klotzbach’s team predicted a 48 percent chance that a storm will hit the U.S. coastline.

IBM’S Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration An enhanced satellite image from Sept. 11 shows Tropical Storm Florence, upper left, in the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Isaac, center, and Hurricane Helene, right. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the Atlantic hurricane season should be near normal this year.