Missouri not as strapping as power rating indicates
Injuries helping point toward Mississippi as 12½-point underdog
Missouri is a curious team.
Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant has kept the offense moving, and the defense has been outstanding. The Tigers (4-1) lost a fluke game to Wyoming and yet rank 10th in SP+ entering Saturday’s home game against Mississippi. However, there are a few data points that models such as SP+ might not see:
Cale Garrett, a potential All-southeastern Conference linebacker and probably the team’s best player, suffered a season-ending pectoral tendon injury.
Bryant called himself “90 percent” after a knee sprain he suffered last weekend. His legs are a big part of Missouri’s offense.
Missouri has scored 41 nonoffensive points in five games. If you don’t account for that, the Tigers average 37 points per game. If you do, they average 28.8.
Mississippi QB John Rhys Plumlee is making his third start. He’s an athletic ball of energy, just what you would expect from a Rich Rodriguez quarterback. He rushed for 109 yards against Alabama and 165 against Vanderbilt.
I played under 57 on this game earlier in the week, and I’ll take Ole Miss plus 12½.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Maryland (-3½) over PURDUE:
Injuries have decimated a Boilermakers team that I thought might be a fringe bowl team. Maryland is without starting quarterback Josh Jackson, but I don’t think that will matter. The Terrapins are tied for sixth in the country with 15 running plays of at least 20 yards. Purdue is missing both its starting defensive tackles and preseason All-big Ten linebacker Markus Bailey. Don’t expect Purdue’s offense to keep up, as the Boilermakers are without QB Elijah Sindelar and probably receiver-kick returner Rondale Moore.
South Carolina (+23) over GEORGIA:
The Bulldogs are 124th in seconds per play and 123rd in plays per game. Their games average fewer than 22 possessions. It’s difficult to win by at least four scores against a competent Power Five opponent when your team has the ball only 10 or 11 times. South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski (elbow) is healthier offabye.
North Texas (+3) over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI:
Before the season, I thought the Golden Eagles were one of the better Group of Five teams. I viewed Southern Miss not as a New Year’s Six contender but as a potential C-USA title team. I wasn’t counting on the defense to fall from 27th to 95th in SP+. Southern Miss has played two pass-first offenses, Troy and Alabama, and gave up a combined 91 points and 1,004 yards. North Texas QB Mason Fine has thrown for 9,136 yards since the start of 2017.
Southern California (+10½ )over NOTRE DAME:
The return of QB Kedon Slovis is significant for a Trojans team that is underrated in the market in part because of the narrative surrounding coach Clay Helton. I’m hoping Helton and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell allow Slovis to throw more on early downs, when he’s had more success than in obvious passing situations. Notre Dame’s pass defense has posted impressive numbers, especially in preventing long plays, and I expect the Fighting Irish safeties to play deep. USC’S receivers will have chances to win matchups on high-percentage throws. Notre Dame’s defense will get tested in a different way than it did against Louisville, Georgia and Virginia. USC’S defense has to avoid explosive plays from RB Jafar Armstrong, who is returning from injury.
5-0
17-11-2
Last week: Season:
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
Carolina (-2½, 47) vs. Tampa Bay, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London:
The teams have split spread decisions the past three seasons. The under is 7-4 in the Buccaneers’ past 11 games, and unders are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Edge: Slight to under.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-10½, 48): The Bengals are
5-1 in their last six games as an underdog. The Ravens are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight home games. The Bengals have covered the last three meetings. Edge: Bengals.
Seattle (-1, 46) at Cleveland: The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Browns have not covered their last three home games. Edge: Seahawks.
Houston at Kansas City (-4, 55): The Texans are 2-0 as underdogs this season and 5-1 in the role since 2018. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven regular-season home games. The under is 8-3 in Kansas City games since late 2018. Texans and over.
: The under is 7-3 in the Saints’ last 10 road games. The under is
6-3 in Jacksonville’s last nine home games. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and 4-1 as home underdogs since last season. Edge: Jaguars and under.
Philadelphia at
Minnesota (-3, 44): The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The
Eagles are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 regular-season games and 2-2 in their past four as underdogs. The under is 17-5-1 in Minnesota games since late 2017. Edge: Vikings and under.
Washington (-4, 42) at Miami: The teams are a combined 1-8 ATS this season. The under is 8-4 in Miami’s last 12 games. Edge: Slight to under.
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 50½): The 49ers had covered five straight in the series before last season when the Rams covered both. San Francisco has won and covered its first two road games this season after a 2-6 ATS road record last season. Four of the last five games in the series have gone over. The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight regular-season home games. Edge: Slight to 49ers and over.
Atlanta (-2½ ,51 at Arizona: The Falcons are
4-15 ATS in regular-season road games since 2017. The Cardinals are 8-12 ATS in their last 20 home games (1-1 this season). Atlanta is 1-6 as a road favorite since 2017. Edge: Slight to Cardinals.
Dallas (-7, 44½) at New York Jets: Dallas is on a 9-3-1 regular-season spread run since mid-2018 but has lost its last two games. The under is 11-3 in the Cowboys’ last 14 road games. The Jets are on an 0-6-1 spread skid at home, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games. Edge: Cowboys and under.
The Broncos are 1-8 straight up and 2-7 ATS since late 2018. Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games. The under is 12-2 in Denver’s last 14 games. The under has cashed in the last four Titans games, and they are 3-1 ATS in their past four on the road. Edge: Under and slight to Titans.
Pittsburgh at Los
Angeles Chargers (-7, 41): The Steelers are 6-1 as underdogs since last season (1-1 this year). The under is 8-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 12 games. The Chargers are 2-10 ATS as home favorites. Edge: Steelers and under. Monday
Detroit at Green Bay (-4, 46½): The Lions are on a 6-2 spread uptick since late 2018. Detroit coach Matt Patricia is 5-2 as a road underdog since last season, and the Lions have won and covered the last four meetings. The over is 6-1 in the last seven games in the series. Edge: Slight to Lions and over.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet. He provides the Reviewjournal with college football tech notes and trends.