Riding favorite looks like way to go

UFC handicapper Finocchiaro likes Figueiredo’s youth

Deiveson Figueiredo was a small underdog to Joseph Benavidez before beating him via second-round knockout in their UFC flyweight fight in February.

Figueiredo has been installed as a heavy favorite over Benavidez in their rematch in the main event of the UFC on ESPN+ 30 card Saturday (PDT) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro has a strong play on Figueiredo to win the rematch and claim the vacant UFC flyweight title. He played him at -200, saying the line should have been higher before it climbed to -215 on Friday afternoon at multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks.

“Joe Benavidez has fought the who’s who of the flyweight division. That said, he’s now 36 years old (on July 31) and is a fighter that relies on movement and wrestling,” said Finocchiaro (@Gamblou). “He fights a guy that is massive for the weight division in Figueiredo. Although he’s not as quick and fluid as Benavidez, he makes up for that with profuse power.”

Figueiredo, 32, is the younger and taller fighter and has reach advantages with his arms and legs, Finocchiaro said.

Finocchiaro also has a play in the co-main event and two half-unit plays on underdogs:

Kelvin Gastelum (-110) over Jack Hermansson

Hermansson has notable advantages in height and reach in the middleweight co-main event, but Finocchiaro likes Gastelum, who is coming off a lackluster loss.

“His last fight, he really laid an egg and was not right. Many are judging Gastelum off his last fight, which I believe is an error,” Finocchiaro said. “Gastelum is recharged. Even though I believe Hermansson is going to get out to a really fast start, when this fight gets ugly, Gastelum has been in with better competition and will be more able to rise to the occasion.”

Rafael Fiziev (+135) over Marc Diakiese

“Diakiese is the longer, smoother, more athletic man, and he’s been in with better competition. But, a little like Hermansson, I think he can be challenged,” Finocchiaro said. “Fiziev is a pressure fighter that I think has the right kind of grappling and wrestling to really give Diakiese trouble as they get past the first round. He’s live.”

Davi Ramos (+165) over Arman Tsarukyan

“This is my PH.D-INMMA fight,” Finocchiaro said. “The 33-year-old Ramos just has too much guile and experience for the 23-year-old Tsarukyan.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@ reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.