NCA A Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sweet 16
The betting lines on the Sweet 16 are airtight. A few numbers arrived on local betting boards a bit out of whack — namely Baylor opening as low as a 6-point favorite over Villanova and USC a pick’em against Oregon — but they appear to have corrected long before tipoff. If you missed the early numbers, this might be a good weekend to kick back and watch basketball without getting too financially involved.
Of course, that’s unlikely to happen. It’s the NCAA Tournament after all and betting opportunities are disappearing.
So, let’s dissect the card as well as possible for those who are craving action one way or the other and hope for more opportunities to fire on the Elite 8 on Monday and Tuesday. It’s been a decent start to the tournament picking every game — while I’m a mediocre 24-25 overall, that includes a profitable 10-7 on plays (6-9 on leans, 8-9 on guesses).
Read on for picks on all of the Sweet 16 games, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side and picks are listed.
No. 3 seed Arkansas -11 vs. No. 15 seed Oral Roberts, over/ under: 159. Arkansas handled Oral Roberts by 11 points early in the year despite a bloated rotation and an off 4-for-17 3-point shooting night. The Razorbacks weren’t nearly the team they’ve now turned into. Oral Roberts trailed Florida by 10 points late in the round of 32 before the Gators inexplicably took off the pressure and stalled on offense. That won’t happen with Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have too many weapons, and Eric Musselman is too shrewd of a coach. This one shouldn’t be close. Play: Arkansas-11.
No. 2 seed ALABAMA -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed UCLA, over/under: 145.5. UCLA coach Mick Cronin has the Bruins playing better defense than they have all season and he’ll need to continue in that direction against Alabama. The Crimson Tide is capable of blowing out almost any team in the country with its shooting ability and the Bruins haven’t guarded the perimeter well for most of the season. With extra time to prepare for the Sweet
16, however, it’s hard not to give Cronin the benefit of the doubt in his ability to scheme something up to limit Alabama’ open looks. The Crimson Tide’s playing style leads itself to too much variance to give this many points to another talented team. This number may belong on the other side of 6. Lean: UCLA +6.5.
No. 2 seed Houston -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed Syracuse, over/ under: 140. At its best, Houston should wallop Syracuse. Problem is, the Cougars’ best has been fleeting lately. Syracuse, on the other hand, has played its best two games in a row with coach Jim Boeheim working his usual sorcery that turns a middling team into a great one come tournament time. Houston came out of its 63-60 comeback win over Rutgers beaten up — Point guard Dejon Jarreau is the only player currently listed as questionable but several others had nagging injuries and may not be 100 percent. Houston’s defense, particularly its 3-point shooting defense, makes it hard to see it losing this game. But this is a lot of points to lay against an Orange side firing on all cylinders. This line momentarily drifted towards
5.5 and that’s closer to where it belongs. Lean: Syracuse +6.5.
No. 6 seed USC -2 vs. No. 7 seed Oregon, over/under: 138.5. I expected this number toopenusc-3toleadtome eventually betting on Oregon. Imagine my surprise when I saw pick’em and felt compelled to back the Trojans. The number has since drifted into place — at least briefly. USC -2.5 feels like the right number but there was buyback on Oregon at that price to drop it back down. The Ducks do have a coaching edge with Dana Altman and tend to have much better shot selection than the Trojans. But USC’S advantages here seem to be getting slightly underplayed — namely with the talent level of Mobley brothers and its defensive efficiency. A half-point isn’t much of an edge, but again, there are small margins on the Sweet 16 this year.
USC -2.
Guess: No. 1 seed Michigan -2.5 vs. No. 4 seed Florida State, over/under: 143.5.
Florida State completely overwhelmed both Unc-greensboro and Colorado during stretches of its first two tournament games. If it can prolong those stretches in the Sweet 16, it may do the same to Michigan. The Wolverines haven’t really seen a team with the Seminoles’ length and athleticism all year. Michigan is extremely well-coached and the extra time between rounds presents an edge but there’s only so much it can do defensively with a shorthanded roster if Florida State is clicking. The only/major downside here is the number, which was as high as 3.5 but is now trending even lower than 2.5. It’s a pass at the current price, but in the off chance it rises again, the Florida State matchup advantages are too apparent to ignore. Guess: Florida State +2.5.
No. 8 seed Loyola Chicago -7 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon State, over/under: 125.5. The Ramblers were undervalued and somewhat secretly one of the best teams in the nation coming into the tournament. They’re not undervalued any more. Everyone has realized that they’re a threat to make their second Final Four in three tournaments. Unlike their last two games, this number is right where it should be. Loyola Chicago is the better team and has the best player in Cameron Krutwig, but Oregon State’s interior defense has improved immensely during a 5-game win streak. It’s not crazy to think the Beavers could limit Krutwig. The Ramblers would be the pick at 6, but with both teams preferring to play slow, more than two possessions is a high asking price. Guess: Oregon State +7.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga -13 vs. No. 5 seed Creighton, over/ under: 158.5. There’s a strong case to be made that the Blue Jays are the best offensive team the Bulldogs have seen since the opening month of the season. Creighton’s 3-point heavy attack and veteran roster are the type of attributes you’d want in scouting an opponent with the ability to knock off a prohibitive favorite like Gonzaga. That doesn’t mean an upset is going to happen. It’s not. But it does mean that Creighton is better-suited to hang with Gonzaga than any opponent in a long time and will bomb jumpers until the final second — also leaving open the possibility of a backdoor cover of this big number. Guess: Creighton +13.
No. 1 seed Baylor -7.5 vs. No. 5 seed Villanova, over/under: 141.5. Has Villanova figured out life without Collin Gillespie or just gotten a couple beneficial matchups in Winthrop and North Texas? Has Baylor fixed its defensive shortcomings or just gotten its own stroke of good luck in facing mediocre Wisconsin and Hartford offenses? There are still a lot of questions regarding these two teams — probably too many questions to lay such a large number. Villanova hasn’t gotten this many points under coach Jay Wright in a tournament game since 2008 for a reason. Villanova +7.5.