MMA BETTING UFC BREAKDOWN
Former UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt is a slight underdog to Rob Font in Saturday’s main event of UFC Fight Night 188 at the Apex.
Rather than choose a side, MMA handicapper Lou Finocchiaro is banking on the fight to go over the total of 2½ rounds, which pays +105 at Circa sportsbook.
“Garbrandt finishes people or gets finished, so there’s some risk in this,” said Finocchiaro (@Gamblou). “However, if he fights smart, he’s going to wrestle. That means close quarters and a slow dance at the prom. Not a lot happening. That’s what we’re planning on.
“Font is nowhere near as dynamic an athlete as Garbrandt, but he’s a very slick, strong striker. I think this is going to be a competitive fight that goes over 2½ rounds.”
Here are Finocchiaro’s other best bets:
Xiaonan, -120
In the co-main event, Finocchiaro is backing Yan Xiaonan over Carla Esparza in a women’s strawweight bout. Xiaonan opened as a -170 favorite but most of the action has been on the underdog.
“I think we’re getting the more dynamic fighter at a bargain,” he said. “Esparza is much shorter and giving up tremendous reach. Any standup fight is bad for her, but it’s magnified in this one. Esparza must wrestle. That’s the only way she can win this fight.
“Xiaonan knows that and has had plenty of time to prepare. She’s the much larger woman and younger. I think the UFC would rather see an up-andcoming fighter do well as opposed to one who’s distinctly a wrestler and does not bring excitement.”
Medeiros, +115
Finocchiaro is siding with Yancy Medeiros over Damir Hadzovic in a lightweight fight on the undercard.
“Both guys come into this thing on losing streaks,” he said. “In a fight I think should be close to pick, I’m happy to take a plus price on Medeiros.” Silva, +100
Claudio Silva is at evenmoney to beat Court Mcgee after opening as a -180 favorite to win their welterweight fight on the undercard.
“It’s a value play on Claudio Silva. This is going to be a close, competitive fight,” Finocchiaro said. “If he can get this to the third round, he will have a distinct cardiovascular advantage. That’s where we’ll win this one.”