Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 16 winners against the spread
Only one division remains in the NFL with all four teams still alive to finish in first. The AFC North came into the season priced as the tightest race in the AFC — the odds in the NFC East were slightly more compact overall — and it’s turned out that way with three weeks left to play in the regular season. The Cincinnati Bengals are currently offered at +125 (risking $1 to win $1.25), the lowest price of the four teams at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
The Ravens trail closely behind at +155 with the Steelers at +700 and the Browns at +800. This is a situation where the NFL’S new scheduling emphasis on holding divisional games late in the season pays off, as there are still four AFC North games to be played.
The headliner for now is this week’s first-place showdown between the Ravens and Bengals, but that could change if the Steelers or Browns, or both, can pull off upsets against Super Bowl favorites in the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers, respectively. The Bengals and Ravens are only a game ahead of the last-place Browns.
That means, if forced to make a bet right now, I’d probably play the Browns at 8-to-1. They’re unlikely to emerge on top but the race is even closer than the odds indicate. Cleveland still has games left with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore.
I won’t ultimately be betting them in the futures market, though. The race is truly too close to call.
Read on for picks on every Week 16 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year picking every game against the spread stands at 113-110-1 after a 10-6 record in Week 15.
Plays (39-33)
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 at Houston Texans:
There’s a lot of debate on Chargers coach Brandon Staley right now, but there shouldn’t be. He’s making more optimal decisions than any
other coach in the league, choices that will pay off in the long term and make blowout wins more likely — especially against a team like Houston, one of the NFL’S bottom feeders.
Pittsburgh Steelers +10 at Kansas City Chiefs:
Pittsburgh has been formidable when it has its full complement of defensive players, and it looks like that will be the case for the second straight game this week. Kansas City has won seven in a row, and covered five in a row, but I still believe the Chiefs are not on the level of their teams of the past two years, based on early-season struggles. That could be stubbornness that will backfire, but sometimes bettors have to take uncomfortable stands.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 vs. Carolina Panthers: Take away the first three weeks — in which the Panthers started 3-0 with a very different, healthier roster — and Carolina is one of the five worst teams in the NFL by net EPA (expected points added). Tampa Bay is one of the three best despite last week’s 9-0 loss to the Saints, and beat Carolina by double digits in both meetings last year.
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings:
Not only do the Rams have the better roster, but their largest edge may come from the sidelines. Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer’s decision-making has been highly suspect all year, which is likely to cost his team in what should be a close game against a
more solid counterpart in Sean Mcvay.
Leans (38-37)
Las Vegas Raiders pick’em vs. Denver Broncos:
Last week’s lookahead line was Denver -1, meaning the market sees minimal drop-off from injured Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to replacement Drew Lock. Statistically, there’s a bigger gap between the two. The Raiders have also thoroughly handled the Broncos in two of their last three meetings.
Detroit Lions +5.5 at Atlanta Falcons:
These teams are virtually even by EPA, and Detroit is actually a tad more efficient by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.
The Lions are dealing with more injuries, but anything higher than 3.5 feels excessive.
Arizona Cardinals pick’em vs. Indianapolis Colts: Last week’s line on this game was Arizona -4, and this large of a shift looks severe. The Cardinals aren’t as bad as their 30-12 loss to the Lions as 13-point favorites, and the Colts didn’t even play well in a 27-17 win over the Patriots as 1-point favorites where they were outgained by 90 yards.
Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 vs. New York Giants:
Philadelphia’s advanced numbers continue to grade out better than common perception. If anything, New York’s are worse. There’s no great value here, but the Eagles should close a point higher.
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens navigated their stark injury situation pretty well in last week’s 31-30 loss to the Packers as 9.5-point underdogs, but that’s no guarantee to hold a second straight week even if quarterback Lamar Jackson returns. Cincinnati’s defense is a significant step up, as it ranks No. 11 in DVOA to Green Bay’s No. 22.
Guesses (36-40-1)
Washington Football Team +11 at Dallas Cowboys: The first game between these two rivals turned out fairly competitive, with Washington coming back to lose only 27-20 as 6-point underdogs. With several players, including quarterback Taylor Heinicke, expected to come off the COVID-19 list, this looks like too many points.
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have won six in a row, but not a single team in the streak has ranked as highly as the Saints by DVOA. In fact, every team Miami has beaten aside from Baltimore ranks in the bottom six of the league, which casts doubt on how much it’s actually improved.
Chicago Bears +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks:
Chicago has shown signs of progress in each of the past two weeks while Seattle is stuck in the mud and now all but eliminated from postseason contention following a 20-10 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. If the number happens to get back to 7, this would be a lean and perhaps worth a small play.
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 at New York Jets: The Jets added 15 players to the COVID19 list early in the week — not including coach Robert Saleh, who’s also out. There may not be many prominent names included, but a cluster of that degree should be tough to overcome.
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns: Number looks right but the Packers are occupying their usual spot atop the most-profitable-teams-tobet list with an Nfl-best 11-3 record against the spread. It’s simply not wise to bet against Aaron Rodgers right now unless a line is really out of whack.
Buffalo Bills +2.5 at New England Patriots: It’s a bummer not to have anything on such a big game, but this line is exactly where I would put it. With nothing else to go on, I’ll take the team that’s been better on a season-long basis getting points.