California COVID cases rising
Official doubts surge will be as bad as last winter’s omicron wave
LOS ANGELES — After months of declining numbers, California has recorded a nearly 30 percent increase in coronavirus cases over the last week along with smaller rises in hospitalizations, causing some health officials to suspect that the state is headed into a new pandemic wave.
The increase coincides with a loosening of COVID-19 restrictions such as mask mandates and vaccine verification rules as well as the rise of new subvariants of the highly transmissible omicron strain. The question now is how much higher cases will go and whether new government intervention will be needed.
“We’re expecting a small surge that may mirror something that we saw in delta last summer, in early July, but it’s happening now, in May,” Dr. Curtis Chan, deputy health officer for San Mateo County, said.
Chan expects a rise in both hospitalizations and deaths but doesn’t believe a new surge would be as bad as last winter’s omicron wave.
“The virus is definitely flowing,” said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s health officer. “People need to know the likelihood of an exposure in the community is increasing.”
California has been recording about 5,600 coronavirus cases a day over the last week, its highest case rate since early March. California’s latest per capita case rate — 100 cases a week for every 100,000 residents — is just enough to meet the threshold for a high rate of coronavirus transmission, data analyzed by The Times show.
Coronavirus-positive hospitalizations have risen 7 percent in the last week, ticking up to 1,037 statewide as of Saturday. Of them, 146 were in intensive care units, a figure that’s up 13 percent over the same time period.
The number of hospitalizations is still among the lowest levels of the pandemic. But the state’s COVID Assessment Tool ensemble forecast suggests hospitalizations will go up by an additional 65 percent by Memorial Day.
On Sunday, the state estimated that the effective coronavirus transmission rate was 1.24. This means each infected Californian is typically transmitting the virus to more than one person, which may indicate the virus’ spread is increasing.
San Mateo County has California’s highest coronavirus case rate — with 222 cases a week for every 100,000 residents. San Francisco is second, with a rate of 220. L.A. County’s rate is 127.
There’s some speculation that case rates are relatively higher in the Bay Area in part because of a high rate of testing. Still, the data are concerning enough that San Mateo County is warning nursing homes, jails, shelters and similar settings about the need to take additional precautions, Chan said.
“We’re certainly seeing it amongst people presenting in urgent care [centers and] emergency rooms,” Chan said. “We’re seeing it in the sewage as well too. So it’s real.”