Bolsonaro outperforms expectations
RIO DE JANEIRO — Jair Bolsonaro outperformed expectations with his re-election bid, proving that the rightwing wave he rode to the presidency remains a force in Brazil and giving him and opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva three weeks to pursue votes ahead of a winner-take-all runoff.
The two diametrically opposed candidates garnered more than 90 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, leaving their competitors far behind. Da Silva came just 1.6 percentage points shy of outright victory.
Political analysts say Bolsonaro now will seek to capitalize on an unexpectedly strong showing by the right wing as a whole to win endorsements from politicians seeking advantageous alliances, while da Silva reaches out to moderates to push him over the top.
The election will determine whether a leftist returns to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or whether Bolsonaro can advance his far-right agenda for another term.
Many polls had indicated leftist former President da Silva had a significant lead, with some suggesting he could even clinch a first-round victory. Most showed margins that neared or exceeded double digits.
But Bolsonaro came within just five points of da Silva, forcing an Oct. 30 runoff.
While da Silva’s tally of 48.4 percent of the vote was within most polls’ margins of error, Bolsonaro’s 43.2 percent far exceeded most of them. The president’s allies running for Congress and governorships also outperformed polls. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro seemed to appeal to poorer voters, who make up a significant chunk of da Silva’s base. He highlighted high inflation that has boosted the cost of food and has hurt the approval ratings of leaders worldwide.
Some analysts suggest voters had been embarrassed to tell pollsters they backed Bolsonaro and instead listed another candidate, said Arilton Freres, director of Curitiba-based Instituto Opinião. “But that in itself doesn’t explain everything,” he added, saying outdated census data also may have had an impact on the design of the polls.
Bolsonaro said his party’s showing could bring fresh endorsements ahead of the runoff as other parties strike alliances in exchange for support. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will surpass da Silva’s Workers’ Party to become the biggest in the Senate and the Lower House, with a total of 112 seats, or 23 more than its main rival — though still are short of what is needed to pass legislation by itself.