College football by the odds: Vegas picks for conference championships
It’s the most wonderful time of year for college football future bettors. Successful win total bets have already been credited to sports betting accounts, with the promise of plays to win conferences soon to follow this weekend when conference championship week concludes. For the second consecutive year, I’ve got five conference futures alive out of the 10 scheduled championship games. North Texas at 30-to-1 to win Conference USA, Toledo at 7-to-2 to win the MAC, Fresno State at 3-to-1 to win the Mountain West and Troy at 16-to-1 to win the Sun Belt were all preseason positions, while I placed a bet on Southern California at 3-to-1 a month ago.
Two other midseason plays — Cincinnati at +260 in the American Atheltic Conference and Texas at +450 in the Big 12 — fell painfully short. At least an already-cashed 6-to-1 play on North Carolina to win the ACC Coastal Division took some of the sting away.
It’s been a disappointing year on the whole with a 347-303-9 record (59-76-1 plays, 138-105-7 leans, 150-122-1 on guesses) picking every game but hitting some of these futures could lift spirits significantly heading into bowl season.
There’s no getting around how much of a factor those bets will play in this week’s picks, which is why I shared them. Let them ride or hedge out to ensure profit? That’s this week’s big question.
Read on for picks on every Week 14 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.
Akron +12 at Buffalo, over/ under: 55.5. This is an impostor game amid all the conference championships after the Buffalo snowstorm postponed the original date two weeks ago. As a regretful holder of an Akron over 2.5 wins ticket, I was hoping it was canceled permanently and lead to a refund. The Zips will cash that ticket if they win here, but it’s hard to have much faith in that as they’ve been worse than I anticipated on the year as a whole. I won’t be betting this game but an inverted middle — a wager that could result in losing two bets — unfortunately looks like my only route from a pregame pick perspective. Guess: Buffalo -12.
Conference USA Championship Game: North Texas +8.5 at UTSA, over/under: 67.5. North Texas is too reliant on explosive plays and not consistent enough on a series-by-series basis, but its style nearly worked the first time it visited the Alamodome this season. The Mean Green took the Roadrunners to the brink as 10-point underdogs and arguably deserved the victory before star quarterback Frank Harris threw a 10-yard game-winning touchdown for the home team with 10 seconds remaining. This number still looks a point or so high, and UTSA being overvalued is going to prevent me from arbitraging my position on North Texas with a moneyline bet on the favorite at -315. I’ll hope the Mean Green get off to a fast start to allow me to hedge on the Roadrunners in-game. Guess: North Texas +8.5.
Pac-12 Championship Game: Utah +3 vs. Southern California at Allegiant Stadium, over/under: 66.5. The market has been too low on USC, which is 8-4 against the spread, all year. I’ll hope that’s the case again here as this future is my smallest one, and therefore, not really worth hedging. The only way I’ll end up with a bet on Utah is if it falls into an early hole and becomes available at +7 or higher in live markets. USC should have never lost in Salt Lake City earlier this year, falling 43-42 as 3.5-point underdogs for its only loss of the season, but a 6.5-point swing at a neutral site feels like a little much. Guess: Utah +3.
Big 12 Championship Game: Kansas State +2.5 vs. Texas Christian in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 62.5. TCU is 14th in the nation in net yards per play; Kansas State is 15th. TCU is 50th in overall success rate; Kansas State is 53rd. These teams really are that tightly bunched, and the Wildcats were on track to beat the Horned Frogs earlier in the season, up 28-10, before losing both their top two quarterbacks to injury. It’s painful this isn’t available at 3, but 2.5 will have to be enough. Kansas State wins outright. Play:kansas State +2.5.
Mid-american Conference Championship Game: Toledo -1.5 vs. Ohio in Detroit, over/ under: 55. The Toledo future position would be my second easiest one remaining to play off of, but it might not be worthwhile at a spread of less than +3. The market seems to be undervaluing the absence of Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who was the catalyst of turning around the Bobcats’ season in emerging as the MAC’S most valuable player. The Rockets might be down their own starting quarterback in Dequan Finn but have the stronger roster all around. Guess: Toledo -1.5.
Sun Belt Championship Game: Coastal Carolina +10.5 at Troy, over/under: 48.5. The Chanticleers have been dreadful since quarterback Grayson Mccall went down, but coach Jamey Chadwell is too sharp not to have a plan in place to avoid embarrassment. Troy -10 is a fair number so there’s not much value here, but with such a wide middle available to my future on the Trojans, it’s hard to resist taking the points with Coastal Carolina. Lean: Coastal Carolina +10.5.
Mountain West Championship Game: Fresno State +3.5 at Boise State, over/ under: 53.5. The Bulldogs have transformed since the return of quarterback Jake Haener, going 5-0 straight-up while winning by an average of 22 points per game. This is yet another game where I’ll only bet the other side of my future, Boise State, if I can get it at a favorable plus price live. There’s no consideration of taking Boise State going into the game. Even at its home Albertsons Stadium, this sets up as more of a pick’em. Lean: Fresno State +3.5.
American Athletic Conference Championship Game: UCF +3.5 at Tulane, over/ under: 56.5. These same two teams met at this same stadium three weeks ago and UCF won 38-31 as a closing 1-point underdog. The Knights haven’t played well since — losing to Navy and sneaking past South Florida — but this is way too big of a move away from them on the other side of 3. The +3.5 is only available at one shop — STN Sports — and essential to this being a play. At +3, UCF is only a lean. PLAY:UCF +3.5.
Southeastern Conference Championship Game: LSU
+17 at Georgia in Atlanta, over/under: 50.5. Georgia has squashed all of its opponents in big games and might be undervalued only because of some sleepy performances in contests that presented flat spots. The Bulldogs will surely be ready to play for an SEC title — something they notably missed out on last year despite winning the College Football Playoff last year — in front of a semi-home crowd at Mercedes-benz Stadium. Getting -17 requires paying -115 at BETMGM, but it’s well worth the price. Play:georgia -17.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game: Clemson -7.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 63.5. Clemson should have the defensive backs to at least slow North Carolina’s potent passing attack with 2023 Heisman hopeful quarterback Drake Maye. North Carolina has neither the muscle up front to compete with Clemson’s trenches nor the tacklers to take down slippery running back Will Shipley. Lean: Clemson -7.5.
Big Ten Championship Game: Purdue +16 vs. Michigan in Indianapolis, over/ under: 51.5. Before getting too carried away with Michigan’s 45-23 triumph over Ohio State as 9-point underdogs last week, let’s not forget it had to sneak past Illinois a week earlier. The Wolverines have shown cracks at times all year and are dealing with more injuries than just running back Blake Corum’s highly-publicized hurt knee. While not outstanding in any area, Purdue is well-rounded and well-coached under Jeff Brohm. Perhaps that’s enough to stay competitive. Guess: Purdue +16.