Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread
One of the most memorable moments of this year’s annual preseason “Hard Knocks” documentary came when Lions running back Jamaal Williams gave an emotional speech about being sick of losing so many games.
He hasn’t needed to repeat the sentiment lately. The Detroit Lions are the hottest team in the NFL — at least from a sportsbook perspective.
Detroit carries a league-high six-game winning streak against the spread into Sunday’s game at the New York Jets, which is mostly lined as a pick ’em. The Lions have also won five of those contests outright, with the only loss coming via game-winning field goal in the final seconds against the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving.
Suddenly the long-suffering franchise sits 1.5 games back for a realistic shot at the playoffs, where it would look for its first postseason win since 1991. The schedule isn’t too daunting going forward — with games at the Carolina Panthers, vs. the Chicago Bears and at the Green Bay Packers after this week’s trip to the Jets — but the Lions are still +270 (i.e. risking $100 to win $270) to make the playoffs at Caesars/ William Hill.
Detroit’s 34-23 win against Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites was one of the only games the pick ’em got right last week as part of a disastrous 5-8 showing picking every game against the spread. But the overall season record still stands at a successful 110-92-5 heading into a week where I’m hopeful for a bounceback.
Read on for picks on every Week 14 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.
Plays (29-28-5)
Los Angeles Rams +7 at Green Bay Packers: The Rams’ defense has continued to play well despite the defending Super Bowl champions’ nightmare season, and the offense should be more formidable now that quarterback Baker Mayfield will have a full week of practice. Look for this line to fall beneath a touchdown before kickoff.
Washington Commanders -4.5 vs. New York Giants: The Commanders narrowly outplayed the Giants two weeks ago despite a 20-20 tie as 2.5-point favorites, and then got the benefit of the coveted late-season bye. This line hasn’t adjusted enough to those factors with the series now heading to Washington’s Fedex Field.
Leans (38-37)
New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons: New Orleans’ defense has underachieved, partly because of injuries, on the season as a whole but is still above-average in terms of talent. This is not a soft landing spot for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder’s first NFL start.
Las Vegas Raiders +1 vs. New England Patriots: The Raiders’ offense has been far more explosive than the Patriots’ and should be able to hit some big plays that prove the difference in the game. This is also a good spot for Las Vegas, which had four more days to prepare off of Thursday Night Football as opposed to a New England side that’s playing back-to-back road games off of Monday Night Football.
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals: This line has only moved 1.5 points since the Cardinals lost quarterback Kyler Murray for the season on Monday Night Football. Colt Mccoy has been dependable as a backup, but there should be a bigger drop-off up against a consistently stingy Broncos defense.
Philadelphia Eagles -9 at Chicago Bears: The Bears’ defense has fallen to dead-last in the league by both expected points added per play and Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, and could be a major liability in what figures to be a high-scoring game. The Eagles should close as a 10-point favorite.
New York Jets +1 vs. Detroit Lions: As well as the Lions’ offense has played, it’s still tough to trust away from its dome and outdoors against one of the NFL’S best defenses. Meanwhile, the Jets’ mediocre offense (rated
No. 19 by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings) is still slightly better than the Lions’ mediocre defense (rated No. 24 by DVOA).
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans: Over 47 points might be the best way to bet this considering that the Chargers’ leaky run defense should be no match for running back Derrick Henry, and the Titans’ beaten-up secondary shouldn’t be able to slow the now-healthy wide receiver duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Shootouts benefit the favorite, though, so the Chargers are the better side at anything less than -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs -14 at Houston Texans: It’s never comfortable laying two touchdowns in an NFL game, but there are real concerns about Houston’s ability to keep up here. Kansas City rates first in the league by expected points added per play while Houston sits dead-last.
Miami Dolphins +7.5 at Buffalo Bills: Despite a fourgame win streak, the Bills’ efficiency metrics have plummeted over the past month and a half of the season. Their power rating by the betting market, however, has stayed the same. There’s not much value in backing them until they show they can get back on the world-beating form from early in the season.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It’s conspicuous that this line hasn’t budged so far despite Cincinnati being hailed as a Super Bowl contender off five straight wins and Tampa Bay being mocked for its latest ugly loss. But the market has been off on these teams all year, as the Bengals have the NFL’S best against the spread record at 10-3 while the Buccaneers have the worst at 3-9-1.
Guesses (43-27)
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Carolina Panthers: Carolina has played better than Pittsburgh, especially in recent weeks, but a discrepancy in overall roster talent remains. If the Steelers get positive news on one or two of their notable injured players, such as quarterback Kenny Pickett or tight end Pat Freiermuth, this number could shoot down.
Dallas Cowboys -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars: These two teams had reverse fortunes last week, with the Jaguars looking terrific in a 36-22 win against the Titans as 3-point underdogs and the Cowboys appearing shaky in a 27-24 escape against the Texans as 17-point favorites. That shaved two points off the lookahead line of Dallas -6, which feels just a tiny bit too much.
Baltimore Ravens +3 at Cleveland Browns: More information should become available on the Ravens’ quarterback situation as the week progresses, and it’s hard to make a wager on them until knowing that undrafted rookie free agent Anthony Brown won’t be getting the start. But if there’s any chance Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley returns, this line will shoot in the other direction.
Indianapolis Colts +4 at Minnesota Vikings: The number looks exactly right, but the Colts have a slight situational edge. They both suffered blowout losses in their last games but the Colts are coming off a bye week, meaning an inspired and refreshed effort is likely if they haven’t quit on the season, which might be a dangerous assumption.