Political forecast: Stormy ’24 reelection battle for Rosen
Nevada U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen may be among the most vulnerable senators seeking reelection in what’s shaping up to be an uber-competitive national campaign cycle ahead of next year’s presidential election, according to political forecasts released this month.
Rosen, a Democrat and the state’s junior senator, was listed as holding one of the eight seats most likely to flip in 2024, according to a Jan. 16 report from The Hill, an online publication that covers Congress.
Nevada has long been a highly contested battleground state, where last year the narrow reelection of Catherine Cortez Masto delivered Democrats a voting majority in the U.S. Senate. But in the same midterm elections in November, Republican Joe Lombardo won the gubernatorial race over incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak to show Nevada is very much a swing state and setting the table for what should be a closely contested 2024 cycle.
In a fundraising email to supporters Monday, Rosen’s campaign referenced The Hill article as well as an analysis from the polling website Fivethirtyeight underscoring her perceived vulnerability in the 2024 election.
Rosen is vulnerable, according to The Hill, because of the partisan divide among Nevada’s electorate — part of the reason Cortez Masto’s margin of victory was by less than 1% of the vote. Additionally, Rosen will have to defend her first term track record, flipping the script from her 2018 campaign challenging Republican incumbent Dean Heller.
And given the battle Cortez Masto had
in November, these early forecasts underscore the Rosen campaign’s need to get out and engage voters and donors, said Dan Lee, a political science professor at UNLV.
Cortez Masto narrowly defeated Republican challenger and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 7,928 votes, or about 0.77 percentage points.
“Nevada has been voting more Democratic in recent elections, but it’s been really close,” Lee said. “There are a pretty even number of Democrats and Republicans within the state. And we know that partisanship is pretty much the strongest predictor of how the electorate will vote, and that’s why we base Nevada as a swing state during presidential elections.”
Rosen has ßall but formally announced her reelection bid, telling POLITICO in October, “I am all in. I’m definitely running.” She doesn’t yet have a Republican opponent, giving the first-term senator a valuable head start in fundraising, Lee said. Cortez Masto raised nearly $67 million in her reelection bid, more than three times the $18.8 million Laxalt raised, and probably wouldn’t have been able to defeat Laxalt without such funding, Lee said.
“That’s the formula for these incumbents to win in these close races, they stave off potential challengers by getting a fundraising advantage,” Lee said. “That was a big factor in saving Cortez Masto despite it being an electoral year that was viewed to favor Republican candidates.”
The Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races, rates Rosen’s race “leaning Democratic,” placing her in a tier with Senate contests in Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin next year. By comparison, the report listed Cortez Masto’s race with Laxalt as a “toss up.”
Former Democrat and newly proclaimed independent Kristen Sinema of Arizona, and Democrats Joe Manchin of West
Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio are incumbent Senate progressives put in the “toss up” category, meaning their reelection prospects could be in even more jeopardy than those of Rosen.
All the aforementioned were also included in The Hill’s list of the most vulnerable senators. Of the 11 Republican incumbents in the Senate, 10 are considered “solid” Republican holds while the other, Rick Scott of Florida, was deemed a “likely” GOP hold.
But name recognition, donations from political action committees and other factors can all play a role too, Lee added.
“That’s why now we’d probably predict Jacky Rosen to win reelection,” Lee said. “Simply because she has the incumbency advantage. That’s one leg she has up over her potential challenger. And that nominee hasn’t even been chosen yet. So, one thing that will differentiate her from whoever wins the Republican nomination will be that war chest.”
A former U.S. representative, Rosen bested Heller in 2018 to win her first term in the Senate. She beat Heller by 48,869 votes, or by 5%, a moderately higher margin than Sisolak’s gubernatorial victory over Laxalt by 39,687 votes in that same election.
Rosen will have the luxury of being on the ballot during a presidential year, which historically draws a higher voter turnout that typically favors incumbent candidates. But the overarching question of whether President Joe Biden runs for reelection could have an effect on Rosen’s prospects for returning to office, Lee said.
Republicans during the midterm election cycle attempted to pin the blame on Democrats for economic issues plaguing the nation, especially on inflation, as record prices for consumer goods over the past year have sparked fears of an economic downturn.
Both Biden’s and Rosen’s reelection chances could hinge on the state of the economy, especially if voters have a recession at the top of their mind in 2024, Lee said. Coupled with the GOP frontrunners expected to challenge Biden — namely former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron Desantis — the 2024 race could be among the closest ever.
Biden’s approval rating sat at 42.1% as of Monday, according to Fivethirtyeight, a slight dip in recent weeks but a rebound since hitting a low point (37.7% approval) July 25, when gas prices in the U.S. were either at or near record highs.
“It’s going to depend a lot on his approval rating,” Lee said. “That’s where it could hurt her, that was kind of the story this past election year, and that’s why people thought Democrats would struggle. And that same thing could happen, especially when he’s on top of the ticket. It really could tie their success together.”