‘Havana Syndrome’ origin still unclear, but foreign actors ruled out
The U.S. intelligence community has concluded that a series of mysterious health incidents affecting U.S. personnel around the world since 2016 were unlikely to have been caused by a foreign adversary or by a directed energy weapon, after conducting what one intelligence official described as an “historic” investigation.
Scouring evidence in roughly 1,500 reported cases, seven intelligence agencies unanimously concluded that it was either unlikely or very unlikely that a foreign actor was responsible for the cases, which became known to the public as “Havana syndrome” after a cluster of cases affected U.S. personnel in Cuba at the end of the Obama administration.
The intelligence community assessment, published on Wednesday, found evidence “consistently against” the involvement of foreign powers, one intelligence official familiar with the assessment said, finding that major adversaries were themselves perplexed over the series of cases.
“What you tend to see among key adversaries is confusion,” a second official said. “Many see a U.S. plot.”
Hundreds of intelligence officials generated petabytes of data as part of the investigation, which began with the assumption that a foreign country was targeting U.S. personnel with some kind of radio frequency device. But the agencies assessed that foreign powers do not possess the kind of weapon that would be required to inflict the symptoms experienced by personnel, and could not identify a weapon that could feasibly be responsible for such a wide variety of cases — targeting individuals in line of sight, sometimes through concrete, without stopping their watches or flickering surveillance camera footage, the officials said.
Intelligence officials narrowed down the volume of reported cases to those that they determined could identify a source of the problem, the officials said.
In one case, an officer reported symptoms after an unidentified car pulled up beside the officer’s. U.S. intelligence officials tracked down the car, and its owner, investigated their family and followed them for four months.
In others, criminal activity was discovered around a reported case. Drugs and weapons dealers who were in the vicinity were investigated for ties to foreign powers.
In several cases, faulty HVAC systems audible to most people sent off alarm bells among intelligence personnel who had been told to be on the lookout for signs they were being targeted, leading to reports.
Optical mice paired with computers also surprised intelligence officials for their ability to disrupt frequencies at some of the scenes of reported cases.
Intelligence officials even examined the possibility of extraterrestrial involvement, questioning whether the symptoms could be caused by a device in the sky – “no stone unturned,” the first official said.
Early in its investigation, the intelligence community hoped to find a common set of criteria to identify as a syndrome behind the phenomenon. But no set of symptoms emerged.
“The problem is we are not seeing a common set of medical things,” the first official said.
Radio frequency and pulsed magnetic energy devices also tend to cause heat on the skin, which was not a consistent symptom among the reported cases.
U.S. officials also asked allies and partners if they had either seen any evidence of a device that could cause the phenomenon, or if their personnel had experienced similar symptoms themselves. “There wasn’t an upswell,” the second official said.
Several cases that occurred in the Cuban capital in 2016 that gave the series of anomalous health incidents its moniker, “Havana syndrome,” remain unexplained.
The second official acknowledged that it was easier to investigate cases in locations where the United States and its partners were “in control of the environment.”
“We did find in a few places electrical issues that may have contributed,” the official said, referring to the Cuba cluster.
But the official added, “I think we have more confidence in what didn’t happen than what did.”
The intelligence assessment was careful not to accuse personnel that came forward of succumbing to mass hysteria. But the officials familiar with the report said that environmental factors may have played a role in the spike in cases.
“The Intelligence Community Assessment released Wednesday by ODNI reflects more than two years of rigorous, painstaking collection, investigative work, and analysis by IC agencies, including CIA,” CIA Director Bill Burns said in a statement. “We applied the Agency’s very best operational, analytic, and technical tradecraft to what is one of the largest and most intensive investigations in the Agency’s history. I and my leadership team stand firmly behind the work conducted and the findings.
“I want to be absolutely clear: these findings do not call into question the experiences and real health issues that US Government personnel and their family members – including CIA’S own officers – have reported while serving our country,” Burns added.
Intelligence officials that doubled down on their probe in the early months of the Biden administration thought from the outset that the prospect of a sophisticated, worldwide campaign, utilizing a weapon the United States neither knew of nor understood, was highly improbable.