How to bet and what to watch at UFC 285
Handicapping the main card of the pay-per-view headlined by Jones vs. Gane
In his heyday, Jon Jones was so unbelievable and cocky that he didn’t need to stick to a game plan. The longtime light heavyweight champion would frequently conform to his opponent’s preferred fighting style, and still win regardless.
It will be fascinating to see if that old habit returns Saturday night at T-mobile Arena when the 35-year-old Jones returns from a three-year layoff to make his heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane. Most consider Jones as the best fighter ever, so doubt him at your own risk. But such a strategy would seem to have greater chance to backfire than ever before.
He’s never taken on someone as big as the 6-foot-5, 247-pound Gane, whose technical and powerful striking could present major problems. For that reason, many expect Jones to get back to his wrestling roots to win a title in a second division.
But the 32-year-old Gane should be more ready for that approach than he was in a unanimous-decision loss to Francis Ngannou last year when he said he didn’t even train in the discipline going up against the feared boxer. Trusting Gane in that department takes a leap of faith, but he should have other advantages in the pay-per-view main event against Jones.
The Frenchman has been active, fighting six times since Jones last entered the octagon, and stable, continuing to train at his longtime MMA Factory home in Paris while Jones made a high-profile switch to Fight Ready in Scottsdale, Ariz. Gane, who only crossed over into mixed martial arts five years ago after starting his career iin Muay Thai, also seems to be peaking while there’s a case to be made that Jones’ best days are behind him.
Jones didn’t look the same in his last three fights at light heavyweight with a string of uninspired unanimous-decision victories. He says a move to heavyweight will bring the best out of him, but that’s not enough to pay the current price of -175 (i.e. risking $175 to win $100) on Jones to win at STN Sports.
Gane comes back at +155 (i.e. risking $100 to win $155), which looks too high given all the unknowns for Jones. Some sports books initially opened Gane as a slight favorite, though many more posted Jones in the -115 to -120 range.
That was a more appropriate line and would have made this blockbuster fight a pass from a betting perspective. But Gane merits a bet at anything better than +150, which implies only a 40% chance at victory.
This matchup doesn’t have greater than a 55/45 split. So lock me in for a bet on Gane at +155 at STN Sports, wagering $160 to win $248.
Read on to see how I handicap the rest of the main card.
Valentina Shevchenko by submission over Alexa Grasso at +270 (Boyd Sports) $100 to win $270
The women’s flyweight champion in the co-main event is the all-time great fighter far more likely to continue her reign at UFC 285. The odds reflect as much, with Shevchenko as high as a -900 favorite.
She’s more known for her striking as a longtime professional kickboxer, but she is also a savage on the ground. That’s where she figures to have a major advantage over Grasso, a seasoned boxer who’s less slick as a grappler.
A knockout, or perhaps ground-and-pound TKO, might be the most likely result, but a submission isn’t too far behind. This is worth the gamble at a high payout.
Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission by submission over Geoff Neal at +180 (Westgate Las Vegas Superbook) $120 to win $216
The undefeated Rakhmonov looks like a future champion at welterweight. He’s never seen a fight go to the scorecards, overpowering every opponent with his sambo base.
Neal’s fate shouldn’t be any different, even though he might be the best opponent Rakhmonov has faced. Neal might be able to hold his own on the feet, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to evade getting drug down by Rakhmonov for 15 minutes.
He’ll be in Rakhmonov’s realm at the ground, and a finish will be a strong possibility.
Mateusz Gamrot -210 vs. Jalin Turner (Westgate Las Vegas Superbook) $360 to win $150
Don’t wait on this one as the line has been on the move for a week and now sits on the verge of getting out of range.
Gamrot was around -170 last week, a price that would have made him the best bet on the card considering he should be closer to -250. There’s still some room for a wager given how much of an advantage the Polish grappler should hold over “The Tarantula.”
Turner is lanky and crafty, having used his awkwardness to attack from unorthodox angles and secure submissions to climb the UFC ranks. But that’s not going to matter much against Gamrot, who should be able to close the distance without falling into any traps.
Bo Nickal by KO/TKO/DQ over Jamie Pickett at +275 (Westgate Las Vegas Superbook) $56 to win $154
This is a showcase spot for the former Penn State wrestling star Nickal, one of the UFC’S top prospects.
Anything less than a quick finish for three-time national champion college wrestler would be shocking, and most assume it will be a submission. Nickal submitted his two opponents in Dana White’s Contender Series, but he scored a knockout in his mixed martial arts debut last year.
A knockout might not be all that likely here against a veteran like Pickett, but a ground-andpound stoppage following a takedown is quite possible. It’s a better way to gamble on this fight than laying -250 for a Nickal submission or -2000 for a Nickal victory.