College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 8
Two eras of college football are at risk of passing without Penn State having ever been much of a factor on the national level. When the sport implemented the Bowl Championship Series National Championship Game beginning in the 1998-99 season, the Nittany Lions surely would have been one of the favorites to make an early appearance.
It never happened in the 16-year history of the event. The Nittany Lions have similarly never advanced to the four-team College Football Playoff since its inception for the 2014-2015 season and have one last chance to do so this year before expansion (and conference realignment) arrives next year.
The good news is, this year’s squad might arguably be Penn State’s best in the past 25 years. Penn State is 6-0 both straightup and against the spread, and gets a chance to start proving it belongs back at the top of college football with a Saturday morning game at Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions are 4-point underdogs, the shortest spread at Ohio Stadium since 2008 in late coach Joe Paterno’s final Big Ten championship season.
This year’s Big Ten is widely considered a three-team race between Michigan at +135 (i.e. risking $100 to win $135), Ohio State at +215 and Penn State at +315. Considering Michigan or Ohio State has won the conference in each of past six years, Penn State cracking the top of the betting board is no minor accomplishment. But the Nittany Lions surely want more.
They get Michigan at home on Nov. 11 two games after this weekend’s showdown and may need to win both to ensure a 25th straight year doesn’t go by without them playing for a national championship. Don’t put it past Penn State, not with how well it’s played over the first half of the season.
Read on for handicaps on every Football Bowl Subdivision game in Week 8. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 177-192-8 (47-49-1 on plays, 55-61-2 on leans and 75-83-5 on guesses).
Big games
Penn State +4 at Ohio State, over/under: 47. For all the concern about Ohio State’s offense, there’s been less noise about the Buckeyes now potentially having one of the best defenses in the nation. Penn State’s offensive numbers look gaudy but they’re due for some drop against such a disruptive Ohio State stop unit. Guess: Ohio State -4.
UCF +20 at Oklahoma, over/under: 65. There will probably be a better spot to do so in the next couple weeks but UCF looks like a buy-low team coming off a three-game losing streak where it was beset by an onslaught of injuries. The Knights should be healthier coming off a bye and have the talent at their peak not to get blown out against anyone. Guess: UCF +20.
Washington State +20.5 at Oregon, over/under: 62. It’s traditionally difficult for a contending team to bounce back and play their best coming off their first loss of the season, especially one as crippling as Oregon’s 36-33 setback to Washington last week. More importantly, this spread looks a couple points inflated anyway and too colored by Washington State’s recent two-week skid instead of a season-long sample that says the visitors can at least keep up in a shootout. Play: Washington State +20.5.
Tennessee +8.5 at Alabama, over/under: 49.5. Alabama has learned to navigate its uncharacteristic roster issues admirably during a five-game winning streak, but it’s still just 63rd in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. The Crimson Tide lack the explosiveness to win by a wide margin against capable teams, which the Volunteers are despite being down from last year’s playoff-threatening team. Lean: Tennessee +8.5.
Ole Miss -6.5 at Auburn, over/under: 56.5. If only we had a data point to illustrate how slow-paced, offensively limited Auburn performed up against a high-flying, powerhouse offense to inform this week’s handicap. Oh, that’s right, Auburn faced LSU — a team that in September fell to a more beaten-up Ole Miss side 55-49 — last week and was noncompetitive in a 48-18 laugher as an 11-point underdog. Play: Ole Miss -6.5
Michigan -23.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 48. Series history is squarely in favor of Michigan State, which has tormented Michigan for a decade and a half. But that feels meaningless considering few, if any, of those games featured as large of a talent gap as will be on display at this year’s edition of the rivalry game. Play: Michigan -23.5.
Duke +14 at Florida State, over/under: 49. Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was reportedly close to playing through an ankle injury in last week’s 24-3 win against N.C. State, so it stands to reason he might gut through it for one of the biggest games of the season. This number is fair — if not a tiny bit high — for Duke without Leonard, but if he plays, it should be closer to 10. Lean: Duke +14.
Utah +7 at USC, over/under: 56. USC’S offense is in a funk and now must go up against a rugged, experience defense that seemed to somewhat have its number in a pair of victories a year ago. The number looks exactly right, but the Trojans’ mediocrity has now spread a month with four straight noncovers, so it might not be an easy fix. Guess: Utah +7.
Big plays
Mississippi State +6.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 48.5. This is a high asking price for an injury-ravaged Arkansas side that should be all too willing to play into Mississippi State’s preferred sluggish pace. This looks like the Bulldogs’ best chance for a conference victory, and they benefited from a bye week to get extra time to prepare for it. Play: Mississippi State +6.5.
Boston College +4.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 58.5. Georgia Tech sits 48th in the nation in EPA per play; Boston College is at 88th. Most other metrics are just as lopsided and indicate the Yellow Jackets should be closer to a touchdown favorite. Play: Georgia Tech -4.5.
Baylor +2.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 50.5. The Bearcats bizarrely get big respect in the betting market on a weekly basis but their only FBS cover of the season came in a 27-21 upset of a Pittsburgh team that was broken at the time. Baylor’s résumé looks just as ugly but that’s largely because it played half the year without quarterback Blake Shapen, who’s back now and raises their ceiling. Play: Baylor +2.5.
UTSA -3.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 60. Florida Atlantic’s offense has started to break out under new quarterback Daniel Richardson, which perhaps should have been expected in an offense coached by Tom Herman. UTSA’S defense has been reeling and should give Richardson plenty of opportunity to get even more comfortable this week. Play: Florida Atlantic +3.5.
Texas Tech +4.5 at BYU, over/under: 52. There’s already been one example of Texas Tech underperforming on the road in elevation this season, when it lost 35-33 to Wyoming as 13.5point favorites in Week 1, and now it might be down to its third quarterback. Behren Morton, who’s already filling in for Tyler Shough, is considered a gametime decision after missing the second half of a 38-21 loss to Kansas State with back and shoulder injuries. Play: BYU +4.5.
Other picks
Plays
Utah State +4.5 at San Jose State
Georgia Southern -16.5 vs. UL Monroe
Leans
Houston +24 vs. Texas
Miami +3.5 vs. Clemson Wisconsin -2.5 at Illinois
UNR +14 at San Diego State Northwestern +12 at Nebraska Tulane -20 vs. North Texas SMU -19.5 at Temple
Kent State +7 vs. Buffalo
Ball State +4.5 vs. Central Michigan
Bowling Green -7.5 vs. Akron Hawaii pick’em at New Mexico Rutgers -4.5 at Indiana Pittsburgh +2.5 at Wake Forest North Carolina -23.5 vs. Virginia
Miami (Ohio) +2 vs. Toledo Eastern Michigan +12.5 at Northern Illinois
Minnesota +4 at Iowa Washington -26.5 vs. Arizona State
Charlotte +7 at East Carolina Marshall +4 vs. James Madison Western Michigan +17 at Ohio
Guesses
Old Dominion +6.5 vs. Appalachian State
Memphis -5.5 at UAB
Coastal Carolina -10 at Arkansas State
Connecticut +2 vs. South Florida Colorado State +8 at UNLV Georgia State +3 at Louisiana Tulsa -3 vs. Rice
Air Force -10.5 at Navy
Kansas State +6.5 vs. TCU South Carolina +7 at Missouri Stanford +17 at UCLA
Army +30.5 at LSU