Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread
A version of this story was posted on lasvegassun.com
Scoring was already down in the NFL this year, and the betting market is indicating it could hit a new low in Week 14.
Eight of the 15 games scheduled for the slate have totals of over/under 40 points or fewer. Several of them have been bet down with money pouring in on the unders as a result of forecasted waves of windy and cold weather across the Northeast into parts of the Midwest.
Sunday’s lowest total belongs to a matchup between two current playoff teams, Jacksonville at Cleveland, as it sits at over/ under 30.5 points. The historically low figure is a result of both the weather forecast and an expected pairing of reserve quarterbacks in the Browns’
Joe Flacco and the Jaguars’ C.J. Beathard.
It’s going to take a real dearth of points to extend unders’ pronounced seasonlong profitability in the totals market. Unders are 110-83 on the year, meaning blindly betting against points in every game would have yielded a comfortable return.
Read on to find handicaps on every game in what projects as the ultimate low-scoring week. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year is 95-95-3.
Plays (34-24-1)
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Atlanta’s throwback style and frequent game mismanagement make it no joy to watch, but the Falcons are still pretty clearly better than the Buccaneers and therefore should be laying a bigger number at home. Atlanta holds a substantial .5 net yard per play edge over Tampa Bay for the season. The Falcons also outgained the Buccaneers by 1.2 yards per play in the first meeting between the teams, a 16-13 victory for Atlanta in Tampa Bay.
New York Jets +5.5 vs. Houston Texans. The Texans have been a revelation this season but the plaudits are spiraling out of control following a narrow 22-16 victory against the Denver Broncos as 3.5-point favorites in a game that easily could have fallen the other way. This is the largest favorite Houston has been since the 2020 season and it’s coming on the road against one of the NFL’S best defenses. And laugh all you want but much-mocked, now-reinstated Jets starting quarterback Zach Wilson gives the team a better chance to win than the recently released Tim Boyle.
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia edging Dallas 28-23 as 3-point favorites last month was one of the most misleading results of the year, as the latter dominated the game but made several baffling errors down the stretch. With extra time to prepare off a Thursday night appearance while the Eagles play a top-tier opponent for the sixth straight week, the Cowboys find themselves in an ideal spot to rectify that here. Getting the -3 requires laying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) but that’s a better bet than -3.5 at -110.
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is getting a boost in the betting market because of the expected return of reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson at wide receiver, but how big is his impact without a sure passer to throw to him? Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs is too up and down. The Raiders should get a boost out of their bye week too, with several players, including star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, receiving much-needed time to nurse injuries.
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos. The Chargers have endured a nightmare season while the Broncos have gotten every break in the book, and yet, the former remains comfortably ahead of the latter by virtually every measure.
That includes the DVOA ratings, weighted DVOA ratings (which accounts more for recent performance) and expected points added (EPA) per play. It’s just a lean at -3, but a few sportsbooks tilting on the other side toward Denver is enough for a play.
Leans (32-32-1)
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks. In four meetings over the past two seasons, the 49ers are undefeated against the Seahawks, with all but one of the victories by at least 18 points. And this matchup might be the most lopsided it’s been in that time, with the 49ers offense taking off to boost Brock Purdy’s MVP candidacy and the Seahawks’ defense sinking mightily.
New Orleans Saints -5 vs. Carolina Panthers. With as poorly as again-injured quarterback Derek Carr has played this season for the Saints, there might not be any drop-off between him and this week’s likely starter, Jameis Winston. And yet, this number trimmed 1.5 points after Carr went down with a concussion and back injury in last week’s 33-28 loss to the Detroit Lions as 3.5-point underdogs.
Baltimore Ravens -7 vs.
Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have fought back into the playoff picture via three straight wins and covers (depending on the number) against a weak portion of their schedule. But they’ve looked severely limited whenever stepping up in class, having gone 1-4 straight-up, 1-3-1 against the spread this year as a 3-point underdog or more. This is the biggest step up in class so far, with the Ravens also benefiting from a bye week.
Guesses (29-42-1)
Indianapolis Colts -1 at Cincinnati Bengals. Cue the weekly praise for Colts coach Shane Steichen, who should be able outwit Bengals coach Zac Taylor, especially with the latter on a short week after playing Monday. Indianapolis also has an edge at quarterback with Gardner Minshew over Cincinnati’s Jake Browning, despite the Joe Burrow fill-in putting together the game of his life in a 34-31 overtime win against the Jacksonville Jaguars with the Bengals as 10-point underdogs.
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions. This spread opened Detroit -5.5, making for a sure bet on the Bears at that price after they arguably outplayed their divisional rival three games ago in a 31-26 loss on the road as 7.5-point favorites. But it’s since verged on going too far. The Lions might be the pick at -3, but as long as the extra halfpoint is still there, the Bears may represent ever-so-slight value.
Green Bay Packers -6.5 at New York Giants. Green Bay’s market rating is at its peak after a 4-1 straight-up and against-the-spread stretch, so every instinct screams to sell high on the Packers. It’s just difficult to put that into action here against the worst team in the league by DVOA. The Giants’ choice to stick with quarterback Tommy Devito over the returning-from-injury Tyrod Taylor further cements them as a stayaway side.
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Cleveland is eighth in the NFL in EPA per play; Jacksonville is 21st.
And now the Jaguars presumably must play without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The most important position was one of the few places where the Jaguars would have held an edge on the Browns. That’s likely no longer the case given the way Flacco displayed competence in his first start of the season, a 36-19 loss to the Rams as 3.5point underdogs.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills. Anecdotally, it feels like a line has never moved this aggressively away from Patrick Mahomes, as the Chiefs were as high as a juiced three-point favorite in this spot a week ago. Despite their records — Kansas City is 8-4 straight-up to Buffalo’s 6-6 — the Bills have been more efficient and explosive than the Chiefs but doubting Mahomes, especially at home, hasn’t usually been a shrewd move.
Tennessee Titans +13.5 at Miami Dolphins. Tyreek Hill’s heroics have continued — to the extent that he should probably be even higher than this current -200 price to win the Offensive Player of the Year award — but the Dolphins’ overall offensive efficiency has dropped significantly since the start of the season. It might not be this week, but it’s going to catch up to them at some point.