Russia gearing up for Ukraine winter push
Putin bets on pressure, lack of West’s support
After blunting Ukraine’s counteroffensive from the summer, Russia is building up its resources for a new stage of the war over the winter, which could involve trying to extend its gains in the east and deal significant blows to the country’s vital infrastructure.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be hoping that relentless military pressure, combined with changing Western political dynamics and a global focus on the Israeli-hamas war, will drain support for Ukraine in the nearly 2-yearold war and force Kyiv to yield to Moscow’s demands.
“As far as the Russian leadership is concerned, the confrontation with the West has reached a turning point: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, Russia is more confident than ever, and the cracks in Western solidarity are spreading,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow with Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a recent analysis.
An aid package for Ukraine has stalled in the U.S. Congress as Republicans insist on linking any more money to U.s.-mexico border security changes opposed by Democrats. The European Union last week failed to agree on a $54 billion package in financial help that Ukraine desperately needs.
Amid these signs of fraying Western support, Russia has ramped up its pressure on Ukrainian forces on several parts of the more than 620-mile front line.
“The Russian military since October has been trying to seize initiative across the front in a couple of areas,” said Michael Kofman, a military expert with the Carnegie Endowment.
Ukraine’s military needs to reconstitute and regenerate its combat effectiveness after a grueling fivemonth counteroffensive, he said.
“Ukrainian forces, while motivated, are exhausted,” Kofman said in a recent podcast. “They’ve lost a lot of units of action. They’ve lost a lot of assault capable troops.”
One area where Russia has maintained steady pressure is the northeastern city of Kupiansk, a strategically important rail hub that Moscow captured early in the war and then lost in a Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022. While Russian forces have failed to make any significant gains in the area, Ukraine has had to maintain a significant force to protect the city.
Starting in early October, Russian troops also have launched an offensive around Avdiivka, a town near Donetsk, the center of the region that was seized by Moscow-backed rebels in 2014 and illegally annexed by Russia in 2022 with three other Ukrainian regions.
Ukraine has built multiple defenses in Avdiivka, complete with concrete fortifications and a web of underground tunnels, allowing them to repel fierce Russian attacks. Despite massive losses, Russian troops have inched forward steadily, seeking to envelop Avdiivka and cut Ukrainian supply lines.
That battle has evolved into a gruesome grind for both parties and has been compared to the fighting for Bakhmut, the war’s longest and bloodiest battle that ended with Russia capturing it in May.
The Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry are silent about specific plans, but some Russian war bloggers say Moscow could launch a massive offensive of its own to forge deep into Ukrainian territory.
Others warn, however, that the Russian military lacks resources for any such big push, saying that would require many more troops and weapons, exposing it to the same risks that doomed initial Russian attempts to capture Kyiv and other cities in the northeast at the start of the war.