Vegas pick’em: NFL divisional-round winners against the spread
So much for young quarterbacks proving unable to handle the pressure and wilting in their first career playoff appearances.
The two most outstanding individual performances of wildcard weekend belonged to pair of players making their postseason debuts in Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Houston’s C.J. Stroud.
Love posted just short of a perfect game by QBR in the Packers’ 48-32 victory over the Dallas Cowboys as closing 7-point underdogs. That barely edged Stroud for the top spot of the weekend after the rookie’s showing in a 45-14 Texans’ victory against the Cleveland Browns as closing 2-point underdogs.
The emergences of Love and Stroud shows the danger of betting on narratives alone in the NFL playoffs. Most of the talking points going into their games indicated that they were bound for rude awakenings in higher-stakes spots as inexperienced passers.
In fairness, the underperformance from green players at the sport’s most important position arguably reared its head elsewhere. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was mediocre at best in a 26-7 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as 4.5-point favorites.
Although it was Tagovailoa’s first playoff start, his NFL experience dwarfs both Love’s and Stroud’s.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph also fell short in a 31-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills as 10-point underdogs, but he played decently and is an older career backup at 28.
There’s still a sample-size insufficiency, however, and it’s a lazy and losing strategy to blanket all the teams with first-time playoff starters as bet-against sides. The best way to bet the playoffs is the same as the regular season — evaluate the numbers on a case-by-case basis and find where they might be off.
Let’s shoot for a second straight winning record in the divisional round after going 4-2 overall during wild-card weekend. Read on for picks for every game and labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year through the regular season is 142-131-5. Plays (49-35-3)
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 vs.
Green Bay Packers. No team in the NFL has a higher ceiling than the 49ers. Getting an extra week to rest and prepare going into a matchup with the worst remaining defense in the postseason may not guarantee they come close to hitting that peak, but it makes it more likely. There’s no taking away how impressive Green Bay looked in slaying Dallas, but it did benefit from a 64-yard interception returned for a touchdown and another turnover deep in opposing territory. Those are the types of the mistakes that forecast as much more unlikely to happen against a San Francisco side that’s typically well-coached and buttoned-up under Kyle Shanahan. A backdoor cover is always a concern with a spread this large, but if the 49ers are anywhere close to the baseline they showed throughout the season, they will lead by double digits at some point — if not for most — of this game. Leans (45-42-1)
Houston Texans +9.5 at
Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore ascended in the final weeks of the regular season, smashing three straight playoff-caliber opponents (the Jacksonville Jaguars ultimately didn’t make the postseason but were the first team out) by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. But that’s not really the team the Ravens were the rest of the year. Seven of their first 13 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Baltimore’s explosive-play rate trends more towards the middle of the league — especially if just isolating for passing. The Ravens a great team, one that deserved to be called the NFL’S best after crushing the 49ers 33-19 as 6.5point underdogs during the aforementioned span, but on paper they’re not one set up to win by blowout frequently. They should win this game, but the margin is likelier to be by around a touchdown.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins would not have been a playoff team in the piecemeal form they were in against the Chiefs last week. Miami was an injury-plagued shell of itself playing in an inhospitable environment, and that context means everything when evaluating the Chiefs’ blowout victory. This line was trending towards Buffalo -3 (if not slightly juiced on the favorite) before Kansas City opened the playoffs by banking its second largest win of the season. Even a half-point adjustment feels like too much given that Buffalo grades out as more efficient than Kansas City by almost every measure — i.e. the Bills are fourth in expected points added per play to the Chiefs’ sixth. Mahomes could go supernova and steal a victory — the Bills know about that all too well — but banking on that type of effort can’t spur a bet. This may close higher — some sharper sports books currently have extra juice on the favorite — but for now Buffalo holds slight value. Guesses (48-54-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at Detroit Lions. It’s ironic that Tampa Bay went from the team I arguably had the toughest time pricing correctly during the regular season — plays on and especially against them were a staple of the pick’em — to the side I’m now most in line with the market on in the playoffs. For the second straight week, the line on the Buccaneers is exactly what I made it. I advocated for taking the points in such a situation during wild-card weekend, and it worked with the Buccaneers soaring in a 32-9 victory over the Eagles as closing 3-point underdogs. The result might have come because the Eagles are irreparably broken, but it’s hard to win by that much against anyone in the NFL without the victor having figured something out. The Buccaneers are outgunned against the Lions on offense, but their defense presents just as large of an advantage in their favor on the other side. I wouldn’t even consider a bet unless the line got to 7, but the underdog are the choice by default right now.