Consumers figuring out the economy isn’t so bad

The clouds have parted. A warm sun has begun shining down on American consumers — and perhaps, by extension, President Joe Biden’s reelection chances. Over the past year, lots of things about the U.S. economy have been puzzling. Among them is the huge disconnect between how stunning the economy has looked on paper and how Americans feel about it.

On many metrics, the economy has been doing remarkably well: Unemployment hasn’t topped 4% for two years, and layoffs have been few and far between. Inflation has generally been gliding downward. Economic growth has held up.

We’re doing smashingly well in relative terms, too. We’re outperforming our peer countries, most of which are experiencing much higher inflation. We’re also exceeding forecasts made a year ago (when economists were predicting an imminent recession) and even those from before the pandemic struck.

None of this had been enough to cheer consumers, who until recently were about as negative about the economy as they were during stretches of the Great Recession, when unemployment hovered around 9%. As of mid-2023, most Americans thought we were stuck in recession — despite their decisions to spend as if the economy was booming and despite virtually zero evidence of recession aside from bad “vibes.”

But lately, those vibes have shifted. Optimism is busting out all over the country.

Since November, for instance, the University of Michigan’s long-running consumer sentiment index has risen a cumulative 29%. That’s the largest two-month increase since 1991, leaving sentiment at its highest level since mid-2021.

A similar consumer confidence measure from the Conference Board, a corporate think tank, also ticked up. And surveys from Yougov and the Economist find that the share of Americans who believe the economy is in recession has been shrinking.

There are lots of competing theories about why our collective spirits might be recuperating and, correspondingly, why they might have been dourer than the hard data to begin with.

Some, including Biden, have blamed the media, particularly right-wing news sources and Tiktok. Though I agree that journalists tend to be biased toward negative news, I don’t think media coverage can explain everything here, especially considering the recent upturn in public sentiment and the fact that Democratic voters have complained about their personal finances, too.

My own view is that tangible improvements in recent months have made a big difference. Gasoline prices have fallen more than 80 cents per gallon since the summer. The stock market closed at record highs Monday, partly related to expectations of interest rate cuts.

Inflation has been cooling for a while, and Americans have had more time to grow acclimated to the price growth they’ve experienced so far. This means there’s less sticker shock each time they go to the grocery store, and they might have stopped holding their breath for outright price declines that are unlikely to materialize. Milk around $4 per gallon is just the new normal.

Meanwhile, Americans’ wages have continued to rise and outpace inflation, and many consumers seem to believe inflation has finally turned a corner. Their expectations for inflation over the coming year are the lowest since December 2020 and are now broadly in the range seen over the couple of years before the pandemic.

These are all terrific developments for Biden’s reelection campaign. Though it seems unlikely that the economy will suddenly transition into a winning issue for the incumbent, it might stop being an albatross around his neck.

One possible scenario for the 2024 presidential election is a trajectory that looks a lot like 2012’s. During that campaign cycle, negative views of the economy weighed heavily on President Barack Obama’s job approval. A year ahead of the election, Obama was trailing his likely Republican challengers across a dozen swing states, and his chances for reelection were considered relatively weak. But economic conditions gradually improved, as did voters’ views of the economy. By the time November rolled around, Obama won handily.

Of course, the country has changed a great deal since 2012. The expected 2024 GOP nominee, Donald Trump, enjoys a cult following that his 2012 counterpart, Mitt Romney, never had. And this time around, a sudden shock could still distort the economic story, whether real or perceived. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal no longer predict an imminent recession, but they do expect anemic economic growth this year, which might “feel” like recession again.

Plus, the recovery has not been equally shared, and some sectors are already struggling. Manufacturing, which is overrepresented in swing states, has been in a slump for more than a year, even though Biden has made it a centerpiece of his economic message. Salient metrics such as gas prices are also subject to the whims of global events beyond Biden’s control, including war.

But hey, any vibe-related improvement is still an improvement.