Half full or half empty?
Plenty of hope and lots of concern as Padres approach new season
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FPadres fans are unsure about how to feel about the deflating season that followed the exhilarating season that followed the unraveling season that followed the oncein-14-years playoff season, it’s understandable.
The last four laps have been a cash-drenched roller coaster ride.
A breakthrough win in the playoffs came during pandemic-trimmed 2020. A franchise-record payroll push of $185 million with five All-stars on a team that rose to 17 games over .500 at one point spiraled spectacularly as 2021 ended four games south of level.
The intoxicating run to the NLCS in 2022 was sealed by a Division Series jaw-dropper against the hated Dodgers. Last season, the most anticipated in franchise history, inexplicably failed to find traction with a baseball-worst 9-23 record in one-run games and a groan worthy 2-12 mark in extra innings.
San Diego fans know the drill. Each high seems tethered to a withering low.
So, buckle up.
No one has any earthly clue how 2024 will go, given the unevenness of the franchise’s recent track record. Expectations are muted after a talent grab like no other landed with an inglorious thud.
The 2024 season seems to have a half-full, half-empty feel:
■ Half full: Everyone seems wowed about the ascension of manager Mike Shildt, who was nothing but a winner when he led the Cardinals. Perfect fit, this one.
■ Half empty: Everyone said almost the same thing about Bob Melvin, who was nudged out the door and has shuffled over to the division-rival Giants.
■ Half full: The clubhouse chemistry seemed off last season during the first full season with generational hitter Juan Soto. Moving on ensured there’s enough oxygen in the room, while adding four promising pitchers to a suddenly armstarved team.
■ Half empty: Juan Soto, one of the best in the game with a bat in his hand, is gone.
■ Half full: The Padres were awful in clutch situations a season ago, particularly in those one-run and extra-inning games. What are the odds of that happening again?
■ Half empty: Why couldn’t it?
■ Half full: President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller and pitching coach Ruben Niebla did a masterful job rounding out the rotation in 2023, turning Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo into key rotation pieces.
It buoys confidence that the pair can find a way to round out the rotation — after the departures of Wacha, Lugo and NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell — in a bankable way.
■ Half empty: After Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, Soto trade pickup Michael King is unproven in the long term as he transitions to starter status. He threw just 104⅔ innings a season ago and just 63⅓ in his second busiest lap.
Who’s No. 4 and No. 5 in the rotation? Great question.
Where will the Padres find all those innings?
■ Half full: Preller proves again that he’s a great talent evaluator.
■ Half empty: What’s he really won?
■ Half full: Uber-prospect Ethan Salas has everyone in baseball talking about his promising future.
■ Half empty: The catcher is 17
Half full: Platinum Glove star Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in right field.
■ Half empty: Who’s playing next to him?
■ Half full: The left side of the infield should be among the best in baseball, now that Xander Bogaerts and Ha-seong Kim switched spots.
■ Half empty: What about the right side? Bogaerts is a rookie at a new position and first baseman Jake Cronenworth has been his best at second.
■ Half full: About that position swap … Kim is a shortstop again!
■ Half empty: Kim could play so well at his newest position that he prices himself out of San Diego when free agency arrives this fall.
■ Half full: Tatis, Manny Machado and Bogaerts give the Padres three rock-solid offensive pieces.
■ Half empty: They’re all right-handed. Other than Cronenworth, where will they find consistent at-bats against lefties? Rookie Jackson Merrill? Switch-hitter Jurickson Profar? That side of the cupboard needs stocking.
■ Half full: The Padres get a shot at the Dodgers in Korea!
■ Half empty: The Padres start the season against the Dodgers in Korea.
■ Half full: Musgrove and Darvish provide anchors at the top of the rotation.
■ Half empty: Both were hurt in 2023. And how many starters make it through full seasons these days?
■ Half full: Merrill seems to be a flashy, fearless talent who has shown flashes of being a dependable big-leaguer at spring training.
■ Half empty: He’s 20. He’s never played above Double-a and has logged just 46 games at that level. The Show — and the grind — that comes with it is a massive step.
■ Half full: The Padres’ effort to dial back payroll in 2024 seems destined to reset the financial penalties as a multi-time offender under the Competitive Balance Tax. That’s money that can be deployed in the future.
■ Half empty: What about 2024?
■ Half full: The Padres likely still could spend another $20 million or so and still reset the CBT.
■ Half empty: The Padres might do nothing.
■ Half full: This is one of the most competitive spring-training camps in a long, long time.
■ Half empty: Wouldn’t fans feel better if they had more answers and fewer questions?
■ Half full: The bullpen has impressive depth with the additions of Yuki Matsui, Woo-suk Go and Wandy Peralta to go with established arms like Steven Wilson and Tom Cosgrove.
■ Half empty: Can Matsui (Japan) and Go (South Korea) make the jump to the major leagues? Can the Padres depend on Robert Suarez? Who will close after Josh Hader, perhaps the best ninth-inning weapon in the game, walked?
■ Half full: Starting in 2019, the Padres have followed each disappointing season with a winning one. In 2020, a playoff win over the Cardinals. In 2022, the sprint to the NLCS. Here comes 2024!
■ Half empty: If someone thinks that’s a guarantee, I’ve got a beautiful stretch of Tijuana River shoreline to sell..
■ Half full: The Padres joined the 21st Century of streaming while shedding home blackouts.
■ Half empty: It comes at the cost of, well, hundreds of millions of dollars.
■ Half full: Luis Campusano could be growing into the well-rounded catcher the Padres have craved.
■ Half empty: What if he doesn’t?
■ Half full: The Padres surely will play with heart for late, beloved owner Peter Seidler.
■ Half empty: Seidler is not here to continue pushing the envelope on winning.
■ Half full: The Diamondbacks showed there’s a path to the World Series that is not dependent on winning the NL West.
■ Half empty: Now the Padres have to contend with the Diamondbacks, too.
■ Half full: In spring baseball, hope springs eternal.
■ Half empty: It’s October that matters.