NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16
Anopeningncaa Tournament weekendsome are describing as humdrumshould help ampupthevolumeforthe regional final portion of March Madness.
This year’s Sweet 16 is packed with top-tier matchups morethan any other time in recent memory, largely because of the relative lack of upsets during the first two rounds of the event. Theaverage spread in the eight gamesspread over today and Friday is a hushed five points, and there are several showdownsthat could be considered the best of the bunch.
In last week’s preview series, I advocated No. 2seed Tennessee vs. No. 3seed Creighton setting upas the best potential Sweet 16 game. It’s still first rate, especially with the stylistic pairing of Tennessee’s slashing and physicality against Creighton’s shooting prowess, but it’s got company.
No. 2seed Iowa State vs. No. 3 seed Illinois maypair the twohottest teams in the country dating back to conference tournaments. Andno. 1 seed Houston’s double-overtime flirt with disaster against No. 9seed Texas A&M makesit look highly vulnerable against surging No. 4seed Duke.
Andthose are just a few options for the biggest must-watches of the next two days. The2024sweet16should be exceptional, and cashing some tickets could makeit even better.
Read onfor myhandicaps on every Sweet 16 contest. Gamesare labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament currently stands at 30-20-2(9-10-1 on plays, 12-3onleans and 9-7-1 on guesses).
No. 1 seed North Carolina -4.5 vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, over/ under: 173.5
Alabama’s defensive struggles are the talking point dujour and, at this point, might be a little overblown. Thecrimsontide were trending upwardonthat end before a rough stretch right before the tournament, and coach Nate Oats is a master tactician with a lot of versatile pieces at his disposal. Given extra time to prepare — and less travel as Alabamahasbeenonthewestcoast for morethanaweeknow— he’ll have something schemed upto neutralize a good, not great, North Carolina offensive attack.
Play: Alabama+4.5.
No. 1 seed Purdue -5.5 vs. No.5 seed Gonzaga, over/under: 154.5
Purdue’s market rating might be at anall-time high after blowing out its first two NCAATOURnamentopponents, but Gonzaga eclipsed expectations by an even greater degree against stronger foes. These are twoof the seven most efficient teams in the nation over the past month, according to barttorvik.com, and it’s not Purdue (No. 7) ranked higher but rather Gonzaga (No. 3). Purdue center Zach Edey will cause problems in the post for the Bulldogs, but Gonzaga has an edge in the backcourt with the rhythmit’s found.
Play: Gonzaga +5.5.
No. 2 seed Marquette -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed North Carolina State, over/under: 151
Play this gamebefore the conference tournaments with healthy rosters onboth sides and Marquette would have been pushing a 10-point favorite. N.C. State’s unforeseen run of seven wins in 11 days has been a joy to watch but it’s going to catch upto it at some point. Thewolfpack are playing too high above their baseline to maintain. Thegolden Eagles play hounding defense, and Marquette has seen its offense sparked with the return of star point guard Tyler Kolek.
Lean: Marquette -6.5.
No. 2 seed Arizona -7.5 vs. No. 6 seed Clemson, over/under: 152
Thematchupadvantages Clemson quietly had in the first, and certainly second, round are nowhere to be found in the Sweet 16’s opening game. Arizona can overwhelm a lot of opponents athletically, but Clemson may have particular trouble keeping up. Thetigers also have to travel across the country to Los Angeles onashort weekafter upsetting Baylor onsundaynight. Meanwhile it’s a muchshorter trip for the Wildcats, and they’ll be playing in front of a partisan crowd. Guess: Arizona -7.5.
No. 1 seed Houston -4 vs. No. 4 seed Duke, over/under: 154.5
Thenumberistrending toward Houston -3.5, which might be enough to elevate the Cougars to a lean. Houston’s harassing style should be able to fluster Duke, which won’t be able to get its offense clicking like it wasin a flawless 93-55 victory over Jamesmadisonas6-point favorites last round. Meanwhile, Houston’s near-collapse, late escape against Texas A&M10095 as 10.5-point favorites might not be as concerning as it appears. Thecougars need to be better at closing out games, but the fact that they were up10 with 1:26to play in regulation is morepredictive than allowing a wild comeback.
Guess: Houston -4.
No. 1 seed Connecticut -10.5 vs. No. 5 seed San Diego State, over/under: 136
Since losing to Creighton on Feb. 20, Connecticut has reeled offnine consecutive wins with an 8-1 record against the spread, covering by an average of 8.5 points per game. Themarkethasn’t been able to catch upto the Huskies’ dominance. This numberlands right where I madeit, but I’m still haunted, if not embarrassed, by confidently backing San Diego State +7.5 in last year’s national championship before Connecticut rolled 76-59.
Guess: Connecticut -10.5.
No. 2 seed Iowa State -1.5 vs. No. 3 seed Illinois, over/under: 146
Typically, a great offensive team (like Illinois) is a better bet than a great defensive team (like Iowa State) when both sides are competent on the other end of the floor. But is Illinois competent on defense? There’s a case to be made that the Illini are the worst defensive team left in the field. The opening spread of Iowa State -2 was correct, but every half point matters extra when the number is this low, and the early action on Illinois clarified the pick.
Guess: Iowa State -1.5.
No. 2 seed Tennessee -2.5 vs. No. 3 seed Creighton, over/ under: 143.5
I hate not to have strong feelings on most of the games I hyped up as can’t-miss, but the market seems to be on the same page projecting tight outcomes. I backed both the Volunteers and Blue Jays all year thinking they had national-championship upside despite coaching foibles. In a game with two teams that can reach that level, taking the points is usually the preference. Guess: Creighton +2.5.
case.keefer@lasvegassun.com / 702-948-2790 / @casekeefer