Earnings growth propels U.S. markets past global rivals

NEW YORK — U.S. markets are far outpacing their global counterparts in 2024, continuing a decade-long trend of strong growth compared with the rest of the world.

The S&P 500 is up 10 percent for the year, compared with just 4 percent for developed markets outside the U.S. Since 2019, the

S&P has gained 48 percent, compared with just 10 percent for other developed markets, according to the MSCI, a benchmark of global stocks.

Since 2004, the S&P 500 has nearly quadrupled, while the MSCI is up 48 percent.

Faster earnings per share growth is the main driver of the trend: Earnings for the S&P 500 are up nearly 47 times that of the broader global market over the past 17 years, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Earnings growth overall for companies in the S&P 500 is expected to jump 11 percent in 2024, following nearly 2 percent growth in 2023 and 4.5 percent growth in 2022.

Strong consumer spending and a solid jobs market have been fueling the U.S. economy despite stubbornly high inflation and high interest rates making it more difficult to borrow money.

The U.S. economy has historically been far more consumer-driven than counterparts in Europe and Asia, helping to fuel steady earnings growth for U.S. companies over a longer period of time. Stock buybacks have steadily increased over the past few decades, which tends to inflate earnings. Also, big tech companies typically dominate the movement of the S&P 500 and their profits have skewed growth for the benchmark index.

“The bottom line is investors pay for earnings growth, and developed markets (outside the U.S.) haven’t delivered,” Wren said, in a note to investors.

A series of recent reports on jobs, manufacturing and spending have reaffirmed that the U.S. economy remains strong. Inflation also remains stubbornly high, adding more uncertainty to hopes for interest rate cuts this year.

The strong economic data bodes well for investors focused on earnings growth as a key investment consideration. The U.S. government’s latest jobs report for March is an example, coming in much stronger than expected and helping to rally stocks.

“To the extent that consumer spending and corporate profits are more important to investors than how soon, and how many times, the Fed will cut rates, then stock prices can move higher on this report,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief Investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

The European Central Bank also has its interest rate at a record high but has hinted that it could start making cuts in June. The Swiss National Bank made a surprise cut to its interest rate in March. The moves could boost confidence in the European economy, which all but stalled in 2023.

Markets in Japan are poised for growth as the nation’s central bank raises interest rates for the first time since 2007, ending a policy of negative rates. Corporate confidence is improving, which could lead to more corporate investments by Japanese companies that would benefit shareholders, according to a market assessment from J.p.morgan.

Meanwhile, weak consumer spending and lackluster income growth could continue to hamper China’s economy.

Retails sales growth slowed early in 2024, and consumer sentiment remains weak.

“Despite some constructive developments at the aggregate level, the Chinese recovery remains lopsided,” said Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, in a report.