Beijing visit a win-win for Xi and Kim
BEIJING — It had the trappings of a historic summit — a mysterious train, a motorbike convoy, a military welcome and extraordinary displays of flowers and flags.
When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un came to Beijing this week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it marked the first time Kim is known to have traveled outside his country since becoming its leader in 2011, and his first meeting of any kind with another head of state. But its true significance may become apparent only after two more summits.
The first, in April, will bring together Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The second, should it take place, would pair the North Korean leader with President Donald Trump.
Experts say Kim was probably eager to shore up support from China, Pyongyang’s main trading partner and ally, for additional leverage in those discussions. He may also want to drive a wedge between the U.S. and China, which have in the last year joined forces to implement draconian sanctions on Pyongyang.
China, meanwhile, is striving to remain central to discussions — it’s anxious that losing a place at the table could carry consequences for its national security, experts say. Beijing is about 500 miles from Pyongyang and does not want a war in its backyard.
“I think (the meeting) shows some sense of urgency on both sides,” said Go Myung-Hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “I think Xi Jinping now understands that China was being sidelined in these discussions that were taking place between North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea.”
China and North Korea enjoy a strong historical bond, with their communist roots and their alliance during the 1950-53 Korean War. Yet their relations have soured, especially throughout last year, as Pyongyang tested more than two dozen missiles and, in September, a nuclear bomb. Beijing fears nothing more than instability and has repeatedly warned Pyongyang over its provocations.
In the Beijing meetings, Kim, who is in his 30s, said his country could potentially denuclearize “if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts in good faith (and) create a peaceful and stable atmosphere,” according to the official New China News Agency.
The meeting spotlighted a high-wire act for both China and North Korea in advance of Kim’s planned meetings with South Korean and U.S. leaders this spring.
“What does Kim Jong Un want? Let’s be clear. He wants to break what appears to be a united front between China and the U.S. on the North Korea issue,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the research firm Korea Risk Group and a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul.
“Kim has likely made a lot of promises, not all of which are going to be kept, in order to prove to his Chinese hosts that it’s in Chinese interests not to be harsh to North Korea,” he continued. “I can imagine him making promises to behave himself for a while, at least as long as Trump is in the White House. But it’s also possible that he’ll try to terrify China by the increasingly likely prospect of an American military operation in Korea.”
Trump, in a morning tweet, reported he had received a message from Xi describing the visit and saying Kim “looks forward to his meeting with me.”