Lodi News-Sentinel

As both parties play the blame game, our fiscal future hangs in the balance

- SHAI AKABAS/TIM SHAW Shai Akabas is director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Tim Shaw is a senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

is fiscal insanity.

The federal deficit grew 17 percent to $779 billion in the fiscal year just ended, but that’s not the worst of the problem. By the administra­tion’s own estimate, the deficit will increase almost 40 percent to nearly $1.1 trillion in the current fiscal year. With few policymake­rs batting an eye, this disturbing trend has no end in sight.

The question now is whether the United States will see its economic future gradually damaged through the erosion of investment­s, jobs and growth, or whether there will be a financial jolt that results in abrupt, and likely painful, fiscal adjustment­s.

Both parties have lost their moorings when it comes to fiscal policy. Through a lack of leadership, our nation’s public debt — effectivel­y the sum of our annual budget deficits — has ballooned to $15.5 trillion, more than three-quarters of the entire U.S. economy. Policymake­rs have sacrificed long-term economic health for short-term political gain by putting tax cuts and spending increases on the national credit card. As we saw recently with the bankruptci­es of Sears and Toys-RUs, there is a limit to how much debt an entity can sustain. While the United States is not about to default and go into bankruptcy, sovereign countries are not immune from market and economic consequenc­es.

The fastest-growing component of federal spending last year was also the least beneficial. It was not Social Security or Medicare or food stamps. In fact, spending on the Supplement­al Nutrition Assistance Program — formerly known as food stamps — actually declined, signaling a growing economy that should result in reduced federal deficits. Rather, it was interest payments on our national debt that grew at an alarming 20 percent — to nearly $380 billion. The Congressio­nal Budget Office projects they will surpass all U.S. defense spending by 2023. These hundreds of billions of dollars provide no direct benefit to the American taxpayer, and they squeeze out purposeful spending, whether for national security, domestic social programs or other priorities.

Some spending needs can arise unexpected­ly. Federal disaster relief remains essential to regions recovering from recent hurricanes — and shouldn’t be hindered by an unmanageab­le debt burden. Similarly, when the next recession inevitably hits, the government may have fewer options to respond. And in the unthinkabl­e event of a large-scale military emergency, choosing between paying debts and defending the nation is the last thing we’d want to face.

The growing debt has serious ramificati­ons for our country and its economy. An out-of-control national debt can directly affect the household finances of millions of Americans by pushing up the interest rates they pay on mortgages, student loans and business debt. This would make getting an education or buying a home more expensive, and businesses would have a harder time expanding. By taking on more and more debt, the federal government is sacrificin­g economic growth and jobs for future generation­s.

Instead of offering constructi­ve plans to address the problem, each side blames the other. Some Democratic legislator­s tout “Medicare for all” and free college, with no realistic plan to pay for them; some Republican­s push for extending the fiscally irresponsi­ble tax cuts, which have yet again proved they do not pay for themselves.

While raising taxes on the rich or making cuts to federal agencies (as the president proposed just last week) could be a small part of the solution, proponents of such moves mostly offer them as lip service to the deficit issue. Part of the blame surely falls on us, the pain-intolerant public, who quickly vote against lawmakers who dare to reduce our benefits or raise taxes.

It’s time for both parties to face facts. Dithering only makes the necessary fixes look worse. President Kennedy famously quipped that the time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining. Yet in the tenth straight year of an expanding economy, we are instead partying like there’s no tomorrow, running large and growing deficits. For every year that Congress and the president wait to act, we roll the dice again on the possibilit­y of a major recession or other disaster tipping America’s fiscal situation into deeply damaging territory. So far, luck has been on our side, but we cannot, and should not, count on that.

There are many serious policy proposals from across the political spectrum that could contribute meaningful­ly to a solution, including Social Security reform, health care delivery system reform, curbing tax expenditur­es, and adding a carbon tax. Unfortunat­ely, the latest round of fiscal warnings seems to have largely fallen on deaf ears in Washington. The consequenc­es may not be here tomorrow, but they are coming. In the meantime, here’s to hoping our luck holds.

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