Breaking down true value of MVP finalists
The A’s have an MVP candidate for the first time since Miguel Tejada’s nomination and win in 2002. But, unfortunately, Marcus Semien is sandwiched between two generational talents in two-time MVP Mike Trout and Astros star Alex Bregman.
But, does Semien have a chance at a sneaky win? Here’s a look at some key statistics to explore how each of the trio might win — or not win — the MVP.
Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics — Why he could win: The MVP odds are low for Semien, given the other two finalists. His 8.1 WAR as calculated by Baseball Reference ranks third behind Trout and Bregman. HIs 7.6 WAR as calculated by Fangraphs ranks second behind Bregman. The merits of his candidacy are perhaps best described through his pure numbers, away from the context of his fellow finalists. Some important numbers:
162: The number of games Semien played — all of them. Manager Bob Melvin didn’t dare suggest that Semien take a day off this season, and luckily health permitted that Semien be penciled in the lineup for all 162, and the A’s needed him for every single one in a down-to-the-wire postseason race that yielded 97 wins.
123: Semien scored 123 runs this season, tying the Oakland record set by Reggie Jackson
in 1969. An antiquated stat? Sure. A stat symbolic of Semien’s impact on offense as a leadoff ? Most definitely.
After an inconsistent start to his career at the plate, Semien honed in on his approach this season to become perhaps the most overall impactful bat in the Athletics’ lineup. This year marked his transformation from adapting to big-league life to thriving in it.
“It’s a different game — initially it’s survival,” Semien said. “But the more you play and more experience you get, sky’s the limit if you’re out there every day.”
His more focused approach started with his command of the strike zone — that meant not swinging at a pitcher’s first offering or biting on a put-away pitch. He drew a full count in 130 plate appearances and reached base on half of them. He had a .369 OBP (8th best in the AL) and .892 OPS (10th best in the AL). The more Semien reached
base, the more he scored — simple, but indicative of his impact.
Why he won’t win: It’s simple, the other finalists had far better seasons statistically. Though Semien was objectively the most valuable player on a top team in the MLB, he has tough competition, and he knows it.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels — Why he will win: Because he’s Mike Trout.
Trout had his season shortened by foot surgery in mid-September, but he still ended up with numbers to prove that he is the AL’s most impactful player when he takes the field. Some numbers:
8.3 WAR (Baseball Reference), 8.6 WAR (Fangraphs): Trout’s Baseball Reference WAR is second to just Bregman. His WAR as tabulated by Fangraphs is ranked first. The argument for Trout’s impact despite about 50 fewer plate appearances than Bregman (and 147 fewer than Semien) is that he was able to contribute to more wins for his team in fewer attempts. In other words, he proved to be the most valuable of the three using a smaller sample size. Does that efficiency earn him the award, or does his shortened season hurt him?
180 wRC+: This statistic determines the weighted runs created, given external factors like the ballpark and era. The league average is 100, which means Trout was creating runs at a pace 80 percent above league average, which is the best in baseball by a considerable margin (Bregman trails him with a 168 wRC+ and Semien registered a 137 wRC+).
Why he won’t win: How do you truly estimate objective value on a mediocre team? Trout is arguably the best hitter in the game, he lives in a natural state of run creation. But, he missed the last three weeks of the season and was creating under the ceiling of a 72-win team.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros — Why he could win: Bregman was the middle-ofthe-order best hitter on the best team in baseball (World Series seven-game loss aside). Bregman has it all: he hits for power and is disciplined at the plate. And, like his fellow MVP finalists, he is one of the best at his defensive position (though that’s not a huge consideration here). The statistical argument:
8.5 WAR (Fangraphs), 8.4 WAR (BBR): Bregman’s Fangraphs ranking is second to Trout’s; his Baseball Reference calculation ranks first. And, remember, Bregman played 22 more games than Trout and still managed to put up near-identical WARs. Given the talent on the Astros, the fact that he is the team’s most valuable player is noteworthy; WAR value that contributes to winning culture is the pinnacle of objective value, no?
12% strikeout rate: In an age where an allout, swing-for-the-fences approach to an atbat is analytically justified, plate discipline has fallen a bit into the shadows. Trout strikes out in 20 percent of his at-bats, which is about at league average, and still manages to walk in 17 percent of his at-bats (why pitch to Trout when you can pitch to someone else?). Like Semien, Bregman’s stellar year seems to be the product of his ability to shrink the zone and find his pitch, a staple in the Astros’ offense. His 12 K% is the fourth best in the AL behind David Fletcher (9%) and teammates Michael Brantley (10.4%) and Yuli Gurriel (10.6%). Bregman wasn’t selling out, but still managed to cultivate a second-best 1.015 OPS with 41 home runs.
Why he won’t win: Bregman, at a glance, trailed Trout in most major categories statistically — despite playing 22 more games. Trout hit 45 home runs to Bregman’s 41; Bregman’s 1.015 OPS trails Trout’s 1.083. His 168 wRC+ trails Trout’s 180. Bregman has the batting average edge, holding a .296 to Trout’s .291. This will come down to the voters’ evaluation of value; will the pure talent on an underperforming team take it a third time? Or will Bregman — with near identical production — be deemed more valuable given the level at which he contributed to an elite team?
Semien, Trout and Bregman were the game’s most feared hitters — Trout’s innate talent has gotten him seven MVP finalist nods in his nine seasons of baseball. Bregman and Semien crafted their approaches to a point where they became imposing figures at the plate throughout 2019.
Semien had an MVP-caliber season. Unfortunately for him, his peers were producing with more inflated results.