Researchers track migration patterns of Camp Fire victims
SACRAMENTO — Like many, David Stromeyer and his wife made a terrifying escape from Paradise as the Camp Fire threatened their home a year ago.
Fortunate than most, the Stromeyers found a rental within a week, joining the thousands of people who temporarily moved to the nearby city of Chico. Where the retirees will make a new permanent home is still unsettled, but it will likely be far away from Paradise, where they hoped to live forever.
One priority is clear to David Stromeyer: “We want to go someplace where we can feel comfortable and safe,” he said.
In more ways than one, the Stromeyers embody the observations made by a group of Chico State professors about migration patterns after the Camp Fire. A new analysis offers a sweeping look at displacement after the catastrophic fire burned nearly 19,000 structures and claimed 85 lives.
“There’s a pretty wide scatter but the majority of the people stayed local,” said Peter Hansen, a Chico State consultant who conducted the analysis.
They found people were dispersed across 45 states but most — more than 8 out of every 10 — remained in California and the vast majority relocated to neighboring cities, like Chico, Oroville, Red Bluff or Yuba City.
Researchers analyzed data on more than 13,000 addresses that fell in the footprint of the Camp Fire, accounting for about onethird of residents. They linked the addresses with demographic and U.S. Postal Service information to better understand the population.
Older residents, like the Stromeyers, were more likely to have moved farther than 30 miles from home. But wealth played an overwhelming factor in who was able to resettle in Chico versus more than 30 miles away, they found. Half of the households with incomes higher than $150,000 moved to Chico compared to about a quarter of the people earning less than $50,000.
Residents with home values between $225,000 and a half a million dollars were also more likely to live in Chico.
Jacquelyn Chase, a planning and geography professor, said they are still working to account for a larger share of the population but the early trends could reflect the tightness of the housing market and the benefits of homeowner’s insurance, among other things.
The real estate market in Chico turned into a frenzy within days with homes selling well above the asking price. Chase said most Paradise residents were over 65 and likely more “footloose” since they’re not tied to a job. Relocating to places farther away than Chico could be a sign of vulnerability but not necessarily, she said.
“People who didn’t have the (financial) wherewithal and couldn’t figure out what to do just ended up without anything,” Chase said. “The motivation to stay in Chico may have to do with the fact people have jobs here.”
Still, there are so many people who remain unaccounted for in Chico State’s data. Researchers said they expected to see more people but after periodic checks, only a little more than one-third of the population in the fire’s footprint were represented.
Chase believes it’s because so many people’s lives are still adrift.
“There is this churning that is really hard to account for,” she said. “Instead of looking at the data as a failure because only one-third is accounted for it’s opened up this new drive to figure out more about those missing people.”
It was luck that helped the Stromeyers beat the odds. Two days after the fire began, they got an email from a friend about a house in Chico. They’ve been in the same place ever since.
“That’s given us a lot of freedom to take time to decide what we’re going to do and when we’re going to do it,” David Stromeyer said. “We decided we’ll make a decision in the next six to nine months where we want to be. We did much better than a lot of people.”