Could Lodi see driest February on record?

Lodi has 29 chances for a rainy day this February instead of 28, but so far, it hasn’t mattered. The local area hasn’t seen any rainfall so far this month — and barring a bit of luck on Saturday, it’s likely to be the driest February on record.

There is one sliver of hope before the month ends: a storm system moving from British Columbia

south through the western U.S. It might bring some snow or rain showers to the northeastern Sierra.

It’s not likely to bring rain to the Central Valley at all, aside from the low chance of a few isolated rain showers, according to the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office.

“We’d be lucky to get anything,” NWS meteorologist Brendon Rubin-Oster said.

Storm systems that come south over land from Canada, as opposed to from over the Pacific Ocean, tend to be drier.

So where are those Pacific-fueled storm systems?

During the drought of 2011 to 2017, a stubborn high pressure system dubbed the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge hovered off the coast, deflecting Pacific storms that would otherwise have headed inland.

A similar “blob” of high pressure is sitting off the coast again,

Rubin-Oster said.

“That ridge over the eastern Pacific has really been sitting there,” he said.

It’s too soon to know if it’s here for the long haul, but in the meantime, it’s been keeping much of California dry.

The area from Sacramento to Stockton isn’t alone in facing a dry month. Much of the Bay Area has seen the driest February since 1864, according to the Palo Alto Daily News.

In the Sierra, the snowpack is far below average.

Officials at Phillips Station — off Highway 50 at 6,800 feet — recorded a snow-water equivalent of 11.5 inches, only 47% of average for the end of February, according to Sean de Guzman, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, who announced the results Thursday in a livestream to Facebook.

Statewide snowpack is a tick lower at 46% of average for this time of year, according to data dug up by those electronic sensors.

“This past February, there wasn’t actually any reported measurable (precipitation) in the Northern Sierra on our eight-station index,” de Guzman said. “And that’s actually never happened before in its history, since 1921.”

Altogether, 23.3% of the state is in “moderate drought” — up from 9.5% last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Another 46.4% of California is now classified as “abnormally dry.”

It’s not time to worry yet. The snowpack is low for this time of year, Rubin-Oster said, but December was a good month for snow and the reservoir levels still look good.

“Things are still pretty green,

“This past February, there wasn’t actually any reported measurable (precipitation) in the Northern Sierra on our eight-station index. And that’s actually never happened before in its history, since 1921.” SEAN DE GUZMAN, CHIEF OF SNOW SURVEYS FOR THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES,

so that’s going to hold things at bay,” he said.

But if the area has seen its last rain until next season, things could get brown quickly.

“It would be very helpful if we could get rain during our traditional wet season,” Rubin-Oster said.

Bruce Blodgett, executive director of the San Joaquin Farm Bureau, echoed the sentiment.

“We really need to have a good March,” he said.

A number of farmers have already begun irrigating for the season, and it’s very early for that, he said.

The dry weather is concerning, especially for farmers south of the Delta, who are already worrying whether reservoir storage will carry them through the season.

“They’re going to have a problem getting water supplies down in the valley,” Blodgett said.

If the dry spell lingers, it could mean that farmers farther south focus on getting water to orchards and vineyards, and don’t plant other crops this season.

The unseasonably warm weather has also been worrying, he said.

According to the National Weather Service, Stockton broke records on Wednesday with a high of 79, and Sacramento matched its record of 76 that day. Lodi saw a high of 74 on Wednesday, and 73 Thursday.

“You might get into bloom earlier, and then have a cold spell or bad weather,” Blodgett said. “You’ve just got to keep your fingers crossed.”

One thing nearly as frustrating as the dry weather is the lack of movement on new water storage projects, Blodgett said.

In 2018, the state approved a $2.7 billion budget for a number of water storage projects, but so far, not much has been done. One project, the Sites Reservoir west of Colusa, isn’t slated to break ground until 2022, and won’t be finished for years.

Lodi saw nearly double the average rainfall last season, from July 2018 to June 2019. It was heartbreaking to know most of that rain would flow into the ocean, Blodgett said. It’s even more bitter now, when the local region has just barely topped half of the rainfall average so far this season.

“We need to do a better job of capturing that water,” he said.

Woodbridge Irrigation District is also watching the weather, manager Andy Christensen said.

“The lack of rainfall and snowfall up in the Sierras does have an impact on the amount of water we receive from our water right,” he said.

So far, things aren’t dire. There’s still a chance of rain in March or April, and the snowpack isn’t desperately low.

Christensen has been at Woodbridge Irrigation District for decades, and he’s reviewed the district’s records. Lodi has been through wet periods and dry spells before, he said.

“Overall, the impact to growers who get water from the Woodbridge Irrigation District hasn’t been substantial,” he said.

Right now, all anyone can do is wait and see.

“We’ll most likely end this water year below average,” de Guzman told the Sacramento Bee on Thursday. “We just don’t know how far below.”

While there is no rain expected in the next few days, the Climate Prediction Center posted its extended outlook for March 4 through 12 on Thursday, showing above-normal chances of precipitation for Northern California.

Rubin-Oster was hopeful. While long-term weather is unpredictable and there are no guarantees, in California history, a dry February hasn’t always meant a dry spring.

“There have been a lot of really good Marches,” he said.