Democrats savor 33% turnout surge
WASHINGTON — The extraordinary number of Democrats who cast ballots in presidential primaries on Super Tuesday might be worrisome for President Donald Trump. But Republicans appear to be just as excited to keep him in the White House.
Across nine Super Tuesday states where data is available, Democratic turnout rose an average of 33% compared to 2016. Virginia saw the most dramatic rise with a 69% spike in turnout. Texas had a 43% jump from 2016 numbers and in Tennessee, turnout increased by 38%.
“The turnout turned out for us,” Joe Biden said on Super Tuesday.
But enthusiasm is up on the GOP side as well.
Trump, who faces only token opposition for renomination, drew some 1.9 million votes in Texas, more than Bernie Sanders, Biden and Elizabeth Warren combined. He also enjoyed high turnout for his certain nomination in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Voter turnout is a subject of fascination and intense scrutiny by both parties, with Trump’s reelection bid expected to turn on decisions by mere thousands of voters in a handful of battleground states. Biden’s campaign, revived by a big win in South Carolina on Saturday, may have turned out more Democrats who say their primary concern is a nominee who can beat Trump, some analysts said. He won 10 states on Tuesday compared to Sanders’s 4, though the Vermont senator claimed victory in the biggest prize of the day, California.
Democratic turnout in Iowa was lower than the party had hoped, similar to 2016, and New Hampshire saw only a meager increase. But Trump enjoyed record turnout in Iowa, and in New Hampshire, the president got nearly 130,000 votes — more than double the 49,000 Obama garnered in 2012.
“Each side is so dug in. And it is going to be their person and they’re very enthusiastic about their particular side. The D’s have such a strong dislike of Trump that they’re going to turn out like crazy. People that are Trump supporters feel the same way about the other side,” said Carla Eudy, a Republican fund-raising consultant who advised John McCain.
Trump’s trademark campaign rallies always fire up his base. But this year, he’s held them in the same states and often within days of primary contests, which may have prodded Democrats to come out against him as well.
A lack of voter enthusiasm was partly to blame for Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016, when Sanders supporters, African-Americans and other key constituencies didn’t show up to vote.
Democrats learned from that election and turned out for the 2018 midterms, when they flipped 41 seats in the House of Representatives to gain a majority.