Could the Kings’ roster be affected by revenue loss?
NBA teams, like nearly all American businesses, are taking huge financial hits amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The regular season was shut down in March, and while it is planned to resume this summer, there will be no fans in attendance. Each game, under normal circumstances, brings in an estimated $1 million to $2 million in revenue from fans in attendance.
When combining all canceled attendance across the season, estimates of lost revenue across the league range from $500 million to over $1 billion. That much of a loss could affect teams in any number of ways, from staff layoffs to salary cap changes to reduced contract offers in free agency.
We have already seen those losses affect Sacramento Kings employees, including the decision to furlough more than one-third of the team’s full-time employees. According to The Bee’s Jason Anderson, a league source suggested the Kings may experience tens of millions of dollars in uninsured losses.
We don’t yet know if those losses could be reflected on the team’s plans for its roster. It would be surprising, but not unprecedented, for outside financial stress to affect a professional sports team’s ability to retain and acquire talent.
It’s hard to know exactly what that could look like, but there are a few paths the Kings could take if necessary.
Simple options for savings — Nemanja Bjelica is the only player on the Kings roster with a contract that is not guaranteed for next season. Bjelica just logged the best season of his career and could be seen as indispensable. Big men who can shoot are very valuable. At the same time, he is the oldest player on the roster at 32 and the simplest contract to shed.
If the financial situation is dire enough, Bjelica represents an easy cost-saving measure. The Kings could try to use Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley or low-cost free agents to fill his role. Sacramento could also try to trade Bjelica or waive and re-sign him for a smaller amount, though both of those options are complicated.
The Kings have seven players under guaranteed contract for next season. Jabari Parker’s player option is likely to bring that total to eight. They also have four draft picks and the option to sign undrafted rookies. Later secondround picks and any undrafted signings might end up in the GLeague, but filling the mandatory 14 roster spots with cheap, flexible deals would not be difficult.
That means the Kings only need to ink a couple of fresh contracts in the offseason. Unrestricted free agents Kent Bazemore, Alex Len,
Yogi Ferrell and Harry Giles could be on the chopping block. Letting unrestricted free agents walk rather than offer attractive deals would keep spending down, though Bazemore is the only player in this group likely to draw a sizable offer.
While Bazemore has played very well since joining the Kings, it could make sense to let him go. Like Bjelica, he is on the wrong side of 30. Bazemore also experienced a notable drop-off in performance when playing for Portland and in his final year with Atlanta. If his 21 games with Sacramento were an aberration, investing in him could be a mistake.
Where it gets tricky — However, there is one free agent that can’t be let go so easily. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a big part of Sacramento’s recent progress. He is undeniably part of the core of the team, ranking third in minutes played since joining the Kings. When Bogdanovic was moved into the starting lineup late in the season, the Kings went 13-7 and made a playoff push.
Kings management has consistently reinforced the idea that they would make Bogdanovic their top priority in the offseason, but there could still be a contract offer rich enough where the Kings bow out. With additional stress on the financial situation, that potential breaking point for negotiations could drop significantly.
While it is hard to imagine from a talent standpoint, letting Bogdanovic walk could save the team up to $20 million next season and several seasons after. If the
shutdown-related revenue loss is extreme, letting Bogdanovic go represents the fastest and largest form of savings.
Tough questions to consider — It’s still far too soon to tell if revenue loss will affect the roster construction of the Kings. Perhaps the silver lining of this situation is that the entire league is in the same boat. If the Kings have to tighten up spending, that could be balanced out by other teams doing the same.
Despite that, some teams have a lower payroll going into next season and will have far less damage control to do, if any at all.
Could the Atlanta Hawks, who have less than $70 million locked in for next season, make an offer to Bogdanovic the Kings just can’t afford? What about the Detroit Pistons or Charlotte Hornets, who are in similar circumstances?
If the Kings could recoup nearly all of their losses by letting Bjelica return to play in Europe, as was once his plan in 2018, should they consider it? What if he plans to go to a different NBA team, or even a rival?
If Bazemore receives even a modest offer of $7 million or $8 million per year from a different team, do you simply wish him luck? Do you try to replace him in the draft?
These are the types of questions that the Kings and their fans don’t want to consider. Unfortunately, the abnormality and difficulty of this season is going to affect next season too, and probably many more to come.
Let’s hope changes aren’t too drastic and that the team is able to strike a balance between financial security and on-court talent. In the end, it’s often the latter that leads to the former anyway.