Surge for Biden is more about Trump turning off voters
WASHINGTON — As President Donald Trump skids in the polls, Joe Biden has amassed a lead in so many battleground states that he is competing in places once considered out of reach, narrowing the president’s path to reelection.
But for all Biden’s good fortune, there is a catch: Voters are not so much upbeat about him as they are upset with Trump. Many, in fact, don’t know much about the prospective Democratic nominee, despite his decades in high office, and some Democrats warn that Biden shouldn’t rely too heavily on Trump’s self-destructiveness to keep propelling him forward.
“The biggest challenge is filling in Joe Biden,” said Robert Gibbs, a former advisor to President Obama. “People know he was the vice president, but not a lot else.”
It is a concern broadly shared among Democratic operatives, even as earlier doubts about Biden have melted away. His once-anemic campaign war chest is bulging as money floods in, and states including Georgia and Texas that long seemed out of reach are suddenly on the battle map. Weaknesses in the campaign’s infrastructure — such as a lackluster social media operation — have been addressed, and Biden is more sure-footed on the virtual campaign trail.
But his lead has undeniably been driven more by anti-Trump animus than anything Biden has done. A CNN poll this month that had Biden ahead by 55% to 41% found that 3 out of 5 Biden voters said they were casting their ballot against Trump; just 37% said it would be a proBiden vote.
Biden insists he will not run as just an anti-Trump candidate, and has promised to detail a New Dealstyle economic agenda. For now, however, the campaign has seemed eager to keep the spotlight on the president’s many unforced errors.
That’s what most Democratic TV ads are doing, according to UC Berkeley political scientist David Broockman. His analysis of ad spending between early April and late May found 88% of ads aired by Democrats and pro-Biden super PACs were attacks on Trump, and only 11% promoted Biden.
That could leave an opening for the Trump campaign, which has so far struggled to settle on a line of attack, to try to weaken Biden through the sort of name-calling and provocative accusations so associated with the president.
“Right now the election is Trump versus Trump, and Trump is losing badly,” said William Galston, a Brookings Institution scholar who has been an advisor on six Democratic presidential campaigns. “If it turns into Trump versus Biden, the president has a chance. Biden needs to do more to define himself in the eyes of the electorate before the Democratic convention in August.”