Rapid spread of new COVID-19 variant in Southern California sparks alarm
LOS ANGELES — The growing numbers of cases of the highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in Britain are sparking worry about a future surge in Southern California, one of the nation’s two hot spots of the worrisome new strain.
Scientists are increasingly voicing deep concern that it is essential to keep coronavirus transmission low and ramp up vaccinations quickly, saying it is possible that hospital systems could again be overwhelmed if the new variant spirals out of control. The variant has been identified in 32 states, with Florida topping the list with at least 147 cases, and California, at least 113.
The new variant — known officially as B.1.1.7 — is expected to become the dominant variant within a matter of weeks; L.A. County officials announced the second confirmed case of the variant Saturday, which they say was “spreading in the county.” At least two cases have been identified in San Bernardino County.
San Diego County has California’s largest cluster of known cases of B.1.1.7 — at least 109 confirmed cases and 44 additional cases linked epidemiologically to known variant cases, officials said last week. Health authorities in San Diego County announced last week the first death linked to B.1.1.7, a 71-year-old man suspected to have been infected with the new strain, who was a household contact of someone who was confirmed to have been infected by the variant. Two people have been hospitalized with the variant.
The median age of those sickened with B.1.1.7 is 30, but the age range of those infected has been between newborn and age 77, said Dr. Wilma Wooten, the San
Diego County health officer.
The growth of the B.1.1.7 variant “requires us to remain vigilant, to not be complacent, to continue to take all the necessary precautions to slow the spread,” warned Nathan Fletcher, chair of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.
The B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus led to a rapid expansion of disease across Britain, Portugal and Ireland, and quickly became the dominant strain in those countries, Natasha Martin, associate professor in the UC San Diego Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Health, told the Board of Supervisors last week.
“This particular variant is estimated to be 50% to 70% more transmissible than previous variants, leading to surges in cases,” Martin said. “There is a recent evidence that it may lead to higher mortality as well.”
California’s first detection of the B.1.1.7 variant came Dec. 30 in San Diego County. It’s now estimated to comprise 5% of circulating strains, Martin said.
“The question is not whether this strain will become dominant, but how long it will take, and what effect it will have on our epidemic trajectory, given its increased transmissibility,” Martin said.
A big problem is that the growing dominance of B.1.1.7 could dramatically worsen the pandemic in California. Currently in California, Martin said, the effective reproduction number — the average number of people to which a contagious person transmits the coronavirus — is around 0.9, meaning every infected person in California now transmits the virus to fewer than one person, which explains why the pandemic is improving now.
But should B.1.1.7 become the dominant strain, with a 50% to 70% increase in transmissibility, the reproduction number could become greater than 1, and could dramatically increase cases, Martin warned.
Scientific simulations suggest officials and the public need to operate with exceptional caution in reopening the economy, Martin said.
Even a decent vaccination plan is no match for the B.1.1.7 variant if people abandon mask wearing and physical distancing in the same way they did in the lead up to Thanksgiving, according to a simulation presented by Martin.