County about to hit COVID surge of last summer

STOCKTON — For the last several weeks, Dr. Maggie Park, San Joaquin County Public Health Officer, has warned supervisors and residents that COVID-19 numbers may get as high as they were in the summer of 2020.

As of Wednesday, data from the California Department of Public Health indicates that the county may match that summer surge by next week.

“Based on modeling from data scientists, we knew to expect the current surge and that it could be as bad as last summer,” Park said. “We are not surprised by the current wave of cases we are experiencing. We are concerned that we have not reached the peak of that wave, as our case counts continue to rise. The daily number of people hospitalized for COVD-19 in our county has already surpassed last summer’s highest daily count and is increasing.”

According to the CDPH COVID-19 dashboard, the county’s new case rate has climbed to 42.5 per 100,00 residents, and the test positivity rate has been stable at 8.3%.

In addition, there were 294 people being treated for the virus in all seven of the county’s hospitals.

Last summer, when the county experienced its first major surge in cases, the new COVID19 case rate was 44.6 per 100,000 residents, and the test positivity rate was 15.8%.

There were also 263 people were in the hospital. On June 15, when the state completely reopened its economy, the county’s new case rate was 3.5 per 100,000 residents, and the test positivity rate was 1.4%, while 34 people were in the hospital.

However, as the number of cases continues to increase, so has the amount of testing.

As of Aug. 25, the county had seen an average of 663.5 tests per 100,000 residents over the course of a week, for a total of 7,721 tests conducted that day.

Nearly 1.3 million tests have been administered in the county since March 1, according to the CDPH. That’s up from a July 2 low of 262.9 tests per 100,000 residents, and a total of 2,038 conducted that day.

“We are definitely seeing an increase in testing and working to meet that demand,” Park said. “More people are seeking out tests at this time because they are either sick, been exposed to COVID-19, or need tested regularly as part of work requirements.”

In Sacramento County, the new case rate is 46.4 per 100,000 residents and the positivity rate is 8.7%, with 461 people being treated in hospitals for COVID19. More than 2.5 million residents in the county have been tested.

While Sacramento County did

not experience the same summer 2020 as San Joaquin County, its case rate did get as high as 47.9 per 100,000 residents last August, and its test positivity rate was as high as 11.7%.

There were 291 people in hospitals with COVID19 at the time.

The county saw its largest surge last December, with a case rate of 61.8 per 100,000 residents.

When the state reopened in June, Sacramento County’s case rate was 4.o per 100,000 residents and its test positivity rate was 1.8%, with 80 people in the hospital.

There have been 86,203 total cases and 1,528 deaths in San Joaquin County since the pandemic began, and 137,879 cases and 1,863 deaths in Sacramento County.