Afghanistan’s neighbors see opportunity and peril in Taliban takeover
It’s not exactly a reprise of the “Great Game,” the fierce competition among 19th century empires seeking plunder and power in Central Asia.
But the abrupt end of the American era in Afghanistan has left the country’s neighbors eyeing one another warily, sensing both opportunity and peril.
“There’s a geopolitical scramble going on,” said Jason Campbell, a RAND Corp. researcher who specializes in international security. As regional powers such as Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan joust and jostle, he said, “everyone has interests to safeguard.”
Even broken by decades of war, Afghanistan is viewed as a prize, a vital strategic crossroads from ancient times onward, its mountains and valleys stippled with largely untapped mineral and energy resources.
Yet bordering countries, as well as some in the wider region, fear a Taliban-led state could pose a potent threat — as an exporter of extremism, or a fountainhead of refugee flight, or both. Afghanistan shares frontiers with six other countries — Iran to the west, Pakistan to the south and east, a trio of former Soviet republics to the north, and a thin corridor abutting China.
Mindful that its hosting of al-Qaida triggered the U.S.-led invasion nearly 20 years ago after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S., the Taliban movement now says it will not allow the country to be used as a haven for outside militant organizations.
Even if that pledge is sincere, it could prove difficult to fulfill. One such militant group, Islamic State, has a foothold in Afghanistan and an avowed enmity toward the Taliban, which is in the process of forming a government after seizing control of the country in mid-August. The United States, ending a 20-year effort to subdue the militant group, pulled out its last forces late Monday, ahead of a self-imposed deadline of Aug. 31.
Facing vast skepticism at home and abroad, Taliban leaders are trying to counter the direst expectations. They have urged Afghans to remain in the country rather than fleeing, promising its 38 million people more moderate policies than during their harsh turn in power a generation ago. They insist they have no quarrel with anyone.
“We don’t want to repeat any conflict again,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid declared days after the group took control of Kabul, the capital. “We would like to live peacefully.”
As the Islamist movement turns its focus from the field of battle to the halls of governance, Afghanistan’s neighbors wonder whether immense domestic challenges — a collapsing, aid-dependent economy, a humanitarian crisis spurred by hunger and internal displacement — could trigger social upheaval that spills across borders.