Blinded by an exciting ending
In competition, we tend to seek heroic outcomes more than humdrum victories. We often play purposefully toward a flashy, newsworthy conclusion that we have designed. This common human drive is treacherous, though, because it can cause us to only see the cues we want to see: signs that our big plan is working, that the moment is ripe for the exciting ending we fantasized about.
Poker tournaments are a competitive arena where trying to be a hero can have devastating repercussions.
Concluding the Aussie Millions main event in January, Lennart Uphoff of Germany and Manny Stavropoulos of Australia were heads-up. The day had been a roller coaster for Uphoff, who had maintained the chip lead for most of the final table but had found his ultra-aggressive play ineffective against his final opponent.
With the blinds at 100,000200,000 with no ante, Uphoff limped in on the button with 10 ♦ 6 ♦ , and Stavropoulos checked his option in the big blind. On a flop of 8 ♦A ♦ 9 ♠ , Uphoff had picked up a gutshot straight draw and flush draw, a monster draw with better than a 40% chance of improving by the river. Stavropoulos checked, Uphoff fired out 250,000, and Stavropoulos called.
The turn brought the 7 ♥ , giving Uphoff the second-nut straight and still a flush draw to improve further. This time, Stavropoulos led out for 650,000 into the pot of 900,000 — an uncharacteristically strong bet and fearless play from an otherwise solid, cautious player. Uphoff just called, deciding not to overplay his hand right away.
When the river paired the board with the 8 ♥ , Stavropoulos led out once more, this time for 850,000, again showing a willingness to play a big pot. Uphoff raised all in for about 2 million more in chips, and Stavropoulos called with J ♦ 10 ♠ for a higher straight, securing the victory and nearly $1.4 million in Australian dollars.
By the time Stavropoulos had led out with two strong bets, Uphoff should have at least perceived enough strength to warrant just calling on the river — and whether a fold could be justified or not, an all-in raise was certainly out of the question. But Uphoff had been setting up this moment all day with his persistently aggressive, attacking style. He had surely thought about the glorious payoff that would come when he eventually made a strong hand, and imagining it had blinded him to the obvious.
No matter how hard we try, we cannot force the heroic results we wish to experience. Instead, we must surrender to the circumstances we are given, and do our best to secure wins where we can find them, living to fight another day when we cannot.