Big GOP debate question: How many will be invited?
Even in today’s Republican Party, there’s such a thing as being too much of a long shot.
On Thursday, John R. Bolton, the ambassador to the U.N. under President George W. Bush who has flirted with entering the race for the GOP presidential nomination, announced he would not do so.
“I believe I can make the strongest contribution to our future by continuing as a clear and consistent advocate for a strong Reagan foreign policy that values peace through strength,” he said.
Even so, the Republican candidate tally seems likely to pass a dozen and could easily reach 20, leaving party officials and TV network executives to grapple with a question certain to bruise big egos: Who will be invited to Cleveland in early August for the first GOP primary debate?
For lower-tier candidates with little name identification or fundraising prowess, an opportunity to tussle on a national stage with top-tier contenders like Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida could offer a jump-start to a campaign. For those in the top tier, frequent debates in which they’re forced to share the stage with lesser-known figures provide many opportunities for trouble and little benefit.
The Republican National Committee plans to sanction nine to 12 debates this cycle, which will be hosted by various television networks. After the August debate, the next is planned for the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley in September.
Party officials and the TV hosts want some objective factors they can use to decide which candidates to invite. The list could include polling, fundraising and the size of staffing in early-voting states.
But right now, those metrics seem likely to leave out some candidates whom many Republican strategists would like to showcase to a television audience, including Carly Fiorina, the lone woman in the GOP primary field. Ben Carson, the only African American candidate, also might not make the cut.
“It’s going to be a mess, no doubt,” said Terry Casey, an Ohio Republican strategist and former advisor to Gov. John Kasich, another possible 2016 contender.
Having 15 to 20 candidates onstage for a 90-minute debate is not productive, said Casey, who is not currently advising Kasich.
On the other hand, a big field of interesting candidates is “in many ways a problem you want to have as a party,” said Stuart Stevens, a senior advisor to Mitt Romney in 2012. “With a field so broad and of different viewpoints, it makes us a party of more ideas,” Stevens said.
Requests for comment from the Republican National Committee and Fox News, which will host the Aug. 6 debate in Cleveland, were not returned.
Unlike in 2012, the GOP rules this cycle bar participants in the sanctioned debates from appearing in any nonsanctioned forums. During the last presidential campaign, the party sanctioned nearly 20 debates. In retrospect, party officials believe the frequent debates dragged along and battered Romney, the party’s eventual nominee.
An average of polling compiled by Real Clear Politics shows no clear favorite at the moment. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who are expected to announce their candidacies next month, are joined in the top tier by Rubio and Paul, based on early polling.
In those surveys, Fiorina, a former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard and unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate in California, is polling near 1%. Other potential candidates who would enter in the lower tier of the field include former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
When the Republican National Committee this year announced the sanctioned debates, Chairman Reince Priebus heralded the sessions as an opportunity for the candidates “to bring their ideas and vision to Americans in a timely and efficient way.”