Lady Luck gets in the game
Several decades ago, I was competing in an important regional event where I had reasonable expectations of doing OK. To my delight, I did much better than that, skipping away with a healthy chunk of cash and a modestly prestigious title. I was playing in good form, but my results were certainly enhanced by something not under my control: Three of my opponents blithely drifted right into one of my favorite positions, one of my “cash cows.” Three relatively easy points had dropped into my lap.
In a state championship once, I nervously noted the participation of a higherrated opponent whom I considered was more skillful and likely to defeat me. Fortunately, our paths never crossed, and chance events dealing with round-toround pairings and results conspired to give me the title on tie-breaks points.
Because outcomes in chess do not depend on the draw of cards, the throw of dice, or other such obviously chancy happenings, players may dismiss the element of luck as a non-entity in our game. If luck is defined as events out of our control that happen to favor us, or not, then Lady Luck most certainly does play chess.
In this year’s U.S. Championship, World Top 10 SuperGrandmaster Wesley So. last year’s Millionaire Open Champion, was caught writing encouraging notes to himself (“double-check ... use your time”) during his game with Varuzhan Akobian. Apparently, So had a misunderstanding of the rules forbidding that, and a forfeit win was awarded to his fortunate opponent after only six moves.
Even greater good fortune graced former World Champion Veselin Topalov in this year’s Norway Chess SuperTournament. Skillfully outmaneuvered by World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen in Round 1, defeat was about to happen. At that point, the world’s best player just let his time run out, giving Topalov a victory. Carlsen had missed an announcement earlier relating to how much time was available for the game. He thought that more remained, as it often does in many such events. Later, in Round 5 in an easily drawn game, Topalov’s foe self-de- structed, making an inexplicable blunder after which he simply resigned.
Much is made of the concept of a “bad beat” in poker in which the odds of winning are highly favorable but you lose anyway. The opponent draws lucky. Professionals know the percentages and that such luck is a predictable part of the game. The chess rating system incorporates such odds-type mentality. Numerical ratings are calculated from past performances, which can be translated into statistical probabilities. For instance, if you are rated 200 points above your opponent, you would be expected to defeated him three games out of every four. So when you get a “bad beat” of losing once in a while to your under-rated foe, just chalk it up to the luck of the draw.