Six keys to who will win in 2016
The struggle for control of the White House will be the biggest domestic story of 2016. The campaign has generated record television ratings and volcanic eruptions of vitriol. By November, it will probably be the most ex pensive political race ever. Already, it is unlike any campaign Americans have seen before.
But, as the song says, the fundamental things apply.
Presidential elections are shaped by the collision of long-term trends and shortterm tactics at the intersection of the candidates’ strategies and the country’s changing social, security, demographic and economic realities. This year will be no exception. Some of the key questions that will determine which party takes the presidency will be settled within the campaigns themselves; others turn on events beyond the election. For me, the answers to six questions, drawn from both categories, are most likely to decide the 2016 outcome.
1 Who wins the battle for control of the Republican Party? Once again, the GOP is dividing between white-collar center-right “managerial” voters and “populist” voters drawn from the overlapping circles of working-class whites and evangelical Christians. When those two blocs have diverged before, the managers’ preference (think John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012) has usually prevailed. But this year, no candidate has consolidated the managerial wing, and the race’s two front-runners are anti-establishment populists relying mostly on bluecollar (Donald Trump) or evangelical (Ted Cruz) voters. Many party strategists fear either would sink in the general election. The primaries will determine whether the GOP’s managerial mainstream can unite to seize the nomination, or whether the party will leap into the unknown with Trump or Cruz.
2 Can Democrats reassemble the “coalition of the ascendant”? That’s the term I coined in 2008 for the groups that underpin the Democratic electoral coalition: millennials, people of color and college-educated, single and secular whites, especially women. Those groups are growing in the electorate, and if Democrats can turn them out and maintain their advantage among them, Republicans could win the presidency only by amassing dauntingly high margins with all other whites. But it remains to be proved whether Democrats can energize those groups without President Obama on the ballot. Polarizing proposals from the Republicans could help, but Hillary Clinton draws surprisingly tepid ratings from some of these constituencies, and the continued tension between African Americans and mostly Democratic big-city mayors over policing practices may depress black turnout after its record level under Obama.
3 Is Islamic State advancing or retreating? Apart from the structural hurdle of winning three consecutive presidential elections (since World War II only Republicans have managed the feat, in 1980, ’84 and ’88), the biggest challenge facing Democrats in 2016 may be the public verdict that Obama’s approach to fighting terrorism and stabilizing the Middle East has failed. The complicating factor is that most Americans also believe the Republican approach (as implemented by George W. Bush) also failed. As the Democratic nominee, Clinton might successfully separate herself from Obama on these issues. But any Democratic candidate may benefit greatly if Islamic State loses ground, and will suffer if the militant group grows more threatening.
4 Will job growth produce wage growth? If job growth continues its recent trajectory (more than 215,000 jobs created a month since January 2013), the economy would create 10 times as many jobs in Obama’s two terms (around 12 million) as in Bush’s (1.2 million). But Obama has received little political credit for those gains because wages and incomes have lagged: the median income is lower today than in 2000. Faster wage growth would reshape the economic debate in 2016.
5 What is Obama’s approval rating on Election Day? No single number may matter more: The higher Obama’s rating the more likely a Democrat will succeed him, and vice versa. Exit polls found that roughly fourfifths of voters who approved of Ronald Reagan in 1988, Bill Clinton in 2000 and Bush in 2008 voted to keep these presidents’ parties in the White House. Exactly 88% of the voters who disapproved of Reagan and Clinton voted for the other party’s candidate; for Bush the number was two-thirds.
6 Who will win Virginia? The Old Dominion may now be the state most likely to signal the presidential winner. The Democrats’ control of the “blue wall”— the 18 states that have voted Democratic in every presidential election since at least 1992 — means they can plausibly reach 270 Electoral College votes without capturing Florida or Ohio, the states usually considered decisive. If in November the Democrats defend the blue wall, add New Mexico and Nevada (which lean Democratic ), and hold Virginia, they will win the White House with the addition of any single swing state such as Iowa, New Hampshire or Colorado (not to mention Florida or Ohio). For that reason, expect much discussion of Virginia’s two Democratic senators (Tim Kaine and Mark R. Warner) as possible vice presidents — unless Marco Rubio or Cruz win the GOP nomination. That would heighten Democratic interest in Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro as its most credible Latino option.