Learn and adapt to the game

To win any tournament, you have to get lucky. Of course, the better you play, the less luck you need. When I won the 2004 World Series of Poker Main Event, I won not by putting my chips in behind and catching a lucky card but by getting my chips in ahead and winning nearly all of those hands.

By the time the tournament was over, I had been all in and called by somebody with more chips on only four occasions. On three of those four occasions I was way ahead, having better than a 90% chance of winning each time. The fourth time was the key hand for that entire week of play, because I was only a small favorite to win and would have been eliminated if I had lost.

With blinds of 2,000-4,000 and a 500 ante, Mike “The Mouth” Matusow raised to 12,000 holding 9♠ 7♠ in late position. From the small blind, I reraised to 36,000 with A♦ J♦. The big blind folded, and Matusow called, creating a pot of 81,000.

The flop was 10♥ 9♦ 3♦, leaving me with a flush draw and two overcards to the board — 15 of 45 remaining cards would improve my hand. However, Matusow had f lopped the best hand by pairing his 9.

In today’s poker landscape, what I did next would generally be a mistake, but I chose to go all in for my remaining 241,000 in chips. Matusow had that many in chips plus 150,000 more. While he could afford to make the call, lose and still be in the tournament, it would hurt his chances tremendously to do so.

Why would my all-in bet be a mistake today?

In the current game, if I had checked, Matusow probably would have bet about half the pot, or 40,000. I could then move all in and potentially get him to fold. Played this way, he is almost as likely to fold as when I go all in for my first decision. Thus, by playing the hand this way, I would win an extra 40,000 when he folds, and I’m in the same position when he calls.

But in 2004, strategy was different. The game has changed a lot since then. If I had checked and Matusow had bet, he would have either bet an amount about equal to the pot, such as 75,000-80,000, or he would have gone all in to put maximum pressure on me. If he went all in, I would have called. If he bet 80,000 and I check-raised all in, he would have put in so much that he probably wouldn’t fold. In 2004, if I wanted to make him fold, I had to go all in myself first to act.

Poker is not a static game. There is not a single strategy in which once you master it, you have mastered the game forever. Poker is a dynamic game, and the correct strategy will vary drastically when your opponents change how they play. To win at poker and continue to win, you must always learn and adapt to what is happening in the game at the moment, not just apply a strategy learned in the past.

As it turned out, Matusow did call, I made my f lush, doubled up, and went on to become the world champion.