A rundown of California legislative races to watch.
State Democrats are hoping higher voter turnout will restore their legislative supermajority.
First of two parts.
Down-ticket races to which Californians may be paying less attention could change the makeup of the Legislature
Although none of these races will be decided on election day, and many probably will evolve into all-out battles once the primary is over, this week’s vote will set the stage for the competitive landscape heading into November. There are 26 seats up for grabs because of term limits or lawmakers leaving office. Fifty-nine incumbents are defending their seats. Fifteen legislators are running unopposed.
State Democrats are angling to restore their supermajority in both houses by taking advantage of what some expect will be sky-high Democratic voter participation in the election.
And as California acclimates to more flexible term limits and the top-two primary, interest groups are spending a record amount to influence legislative primaries — more than $24 million to date.
The prospect of a lopsided turnout combined with the added visibility that independent expenditures are lending some races could make for some surprising outcomes, said Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic strategist and publisher of the California Target Book, which tracks state races.
“All of those things together create an environment in the closing days where outcomes that look likely are clearly not certain,” Sragow said. “You could wind up with some unexpected results.” That could mean two Democrats advancing to November in what have historically been swing districts, or a lesserknown candidate squeaking past perceived front-runners locked in an internecine battle.
Here are a few of the races we’re watching Tuesday:
A house divided; Democrats face off
Assembly District 14 (East Bay) The candidates: Republican businesswoman Debora Allen; and Democrats Tim Grayson, a Concord councilman; local park district board member Mae Torlakson; and Harmesh Kumar, a psychologist An education showdown: Torlakson has racked up endorsements from many in Sacramento’s Democratic establishment and the California Democratic Party, and outside groups are spending heavily to influence this race. They include education groups that tried unsuccessfully to block Torlakson’s husband, state Supt. of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, from being reelected and are now opposing her. The money: While candidates have raised less than $700,000 ahead of the primary, outside spending in this election has topped $2 million. Education advocacy group EdVoice is supporting Grayson, and the California Teachers Assn. and other teachers unions have spent on behalf of Torlakson. Assembly District 47 (San Bernardino) The candidates: Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown (D-San Bernardino); attorney Eloise Reyes, a Democrat; and Republican businesswoman Aissa Sanchez The aftermath of a climate change fight: Brown is facing one of the most contentious reelection fights this year against Reyes, who is positioning herself to the left of the two-term Democrat. The election is taking shape as a battle between progressive groups and more moderate, business-allied forces over what kind of Democrat will represent voters in the district. A handful of labor unions that backed Brown in 2014 are now supporting Reyes. The attorney’s supporters have tried to cast Brown as the “oil candidate.” They’ve pointed to the thousands of dollars Brown has accepted from oil companies and her role in stalling a key provision of last year’s climate change bill that would have slashed petroleum use statewide. The money: Outside groups have dominated spending, dropping more than $2 million so far. Brown’s campaign has a significant cash advantage over Reyes and has benefited from most of the outside spending — mostly by oil companies, charter schools and real estate groups. A unionbacked PAC has bolstered Reyes’ campaign. Business-aligned groups supporting Brown also have spent thousands to support the race’s only Republican, Sanchez, who has no prior political experience and has raised no money, possibly in an attempt to knock Reyes out of the top-two primary.
Senate District 15 (Silicon Valley) The candidates: Sen. Jim Beall (D-San Jose); Assemblywoman Nora Campos (D-San Jose); and business owner Chuck Page and retail clerk Anthony Macias, both Republicans The rundown: Campos, who terms out of the Assembly this year, is challenging Beall in a move that is sure to increase tensions between the two houses. Two similar faceoffs were averted this year after Republican Assemblywoman Kristin Olsen (R-Modesto) bowed out of a race against business-allied Sen. Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton), and Sen. Marty Block (DSan Diego) said he would not seek reelection against outgoing Assemblywoman Toni Atkins (D-San Diego). The money: Unlike Atkins, Campos enters this race with a significant fundraising disadvantage, having raised less than a quarter of Beall’s warchest. An oil industry-supported PAC is supporting Campos, but groups including Tom Steyer’s NextGen environmental advocacy group, the construction industry and California Assn. of Realtors have rallied to flood the campaign in Beall’s defense.
Wide-open races
Assembly District 4 (Northern California) The candidates: Davis Mayor Dan Wolk; Winters Mayor Cecilia Aguiar-Curry; Yolo County Supervisor Don Saylor; Elmer Mark Kropp, a biotechnology professional; and Charlie Schaupp, a retired Marine officer and the lone Republican The rundown: Four Democrats and one Republican are running for this seat, vacated by Assemblyman Bill Dodd (D-Napa), who is running for Senate. Among the front-runners are Wolk, son of outgoing Sen. Lois Wolk (D-Davis), who ran for this seat in 2014, Saylor and Aguiar-Curry, all elected officials in Yolo County, home to most voters in the district. Though Democrats enjoy a 20-point voter registration edge in the district, the crowded field means that Schaupp, the lone Republican, might have a shot at making the runoff if the other candidates split the Democratic vote. The money: Wolk and Saylor have pulled ahead in fundraising, but Aguiar-Curry has benefited from some of the biggest independent expenditures in the state, with nearly all of the race’s $2.1 million in outside spending done to support her and oppose Wolk. Aguilar-Curry told The Times the support from oil and tobacco companies has been “awkward” for her.
Assembly District 27 (Silicon Valley) The candidates: Former San Jose City Councilwoman Madison Nguyen; San Jose City Councilman Ash Kalra; Cong Thang Do, an engineer; school board member Darcie Green; attorney Esau Herrera; college professor Andres Quintero; and school trustee Van Le, the only Republican The rundown: Seven candidates are running for this safe Democratic seat, which opened when Assemblywoman Nora Campos (D-San Jose) announced her run for state Senate. Nguyen and Kalra have emerged as front-runners, but with such a long list of hopefuls — and with large Vietnamese and Latino voting blocs — the electorate could splinter in unexpected ways.
The money: Kalra and Nguyen are about even in fundraising, but their campaigns have been dwarfed by a deluge of independent expenditures exceeding $2.1 million. Most of the money supporting Kalra comes from the construction industry and labor unions, and the California Charter Schools Assn. donated $1.2 million to support Nguyen and oppose Kalra.
Assembly District 43 (Glendale) The candidates: Four Democrats: Glendale City Councilwoman Laura Friedman; Glendale City Clerk Ardy Kassakhian; Rajiv Dalal, a nonprofit executive director; teacher Andrew Blumenfeld; and Dennis Bullock, a former private school dean; retired Army Gen. Mark MacCarley and businesswoman Alexandra Bustamante, both Republicans; and former detention officer Aaron Cervantes, running with the American Independent Party. Another education proxy war: Kassakhian and Friedman have emerged as the Democratic front-runners and are at the center of what has become a major fight between teachers unions and charter school groups. The California Charter Schools Assn. has bankrolled a committee supporting Friedman, sending out a deluge of mailers attacking Kassakhian. Kassakhian, a second-generation Armenian American, has gotten help from the California Assn. of Realtors and teachers unions and could enjoy a substantial boost from Armenian voters, who make up 17% of registered voters in the district and are a well-organized voting bloc. Friedman has emphasized her status as the most visible female candidate in the race at a time when women are losing ground in California politics. The money: Friedman, Kassakhian and Dalal have raised more than $500,000 each, but Dalal’s contributions have dropped off significantly since last year. He was frank with The Times about his slim chances for success. Still, with so many candidates, Dalal or the race’s most visible Republican, MacCarley, could slip through to the November election. Outside spending has topped $1.7 million, with most of it going to support Friedman and oppose Kassakhian.
Senate District 25 (Pasadena) The candidates: L.A. County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich; former Assemblyman Anthony Portantino; retired Pasadena police Lt. Phlunte Riddle; business owner Chris Chahinian; businessman Teddy Choi; and business owner Katherine Perez-Estolano The rundown: Before he dropped out of this race, Assemblyman Mike Gatto (D-Glendale) had amassed more than $2 million and was the favorite to win. Now, Antonovich, the only Republican in the race and a well-known local official, is almost guaranteed to face off with one the Democrats, who are battling for votes in this left-leaning district. Riddle has the backing of outgoing incumbent Sen. Carol Liu (D-La Cañada Flintridge) and several other female legislators, and Portantino has earned the endorsement of the California Democratic Party. The money: Portantino has a major advantage in fundraising, and he and Antonovich have the biggest cash reserves going into the primary. Antonovich also has been boosted by an independent expenditure funded entirely by a real estate developer. Perez-Estolano has benefited from spending by a Latino caucus PAC.
Senate District 27 (Ventura) The candidates: Henry Stern, environmental attorney and policy advisor to Sen. Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills); Shawn Bayliss, legislative deputy for L.A. City Councilman Paul Koretz; nonprofit director Janice Kamenir-Reznik; Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock; George C. Thomas, publisher of the Van Nuys News Press; and business owner Steve Fazio The rundown: In this fight to replace Pavley, a key figure in the progressive, pro-environment wing of the state Democratic Party, Kamenir-Reznik entered the race late, scrambling the field.
She earned the endorsement of former L.A. County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and Supervisor Sheila Kuehl, both of whom switched their support from Stern after she entered. The California Democratic Party has declined to make an endorsement here, and Fazio, the lone Republican in the race, is likely to advance alongside the Democrat who comes out on top. The money: The candidates have collectively raised more than $2.8 million, with Stern and Kamenir-Reznik in the lead. Outside groups have spent an additional $900,000, most of it from labor unions supporting Stern and business groups rallying behind Kamenir-Reznik.