‘LA LA LAND’
Number of nominations: 14
Should win: Picture, director, lead actress, film editing, cinematography, production design, costume design, score, song, sound mixing Could win: Original screenplay, sound editing
Analysis: With 14 nominations, “La La Land” winning best picture is a foregone conclusion. The suspense on Oscar night hinges on whether it can tie or best the record for most wins, 11, shared by “Titanic,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” and “Ben-Hur.” (I’m guessing you understand that it’s the 1959 “Ben-Hur,” not the plodding 2016 remake.)
That’s a tall order. Though, to be clear, I’d rather watch “La La Land” for an eighth or ninth time than clear my afternoon for any one of those aforementioned epics. One challenge for “La La Land” is that because two of its nominations came in the original song category, at most, it can win 13. Ryan Gosling has always been a long shot for lead actor, a race that Casey Affleck has dominated and one that offers a towering alternative in Denzel Washington. And lead actress Emma Stone faces her own challenges in a category packed with powerful performances. Her SAG win boosts her prospects.
Even die-hard fans of Damien Chazelle’s musical were a little taken aback when Chazelle won the Golden Globe for screenplay over the likes of Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”) and Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”). If Chazelle pulls off an upset and wins the original screenplay Oscar, then all bets are off. It could well be a historic night.