A step into Oscars’ sights
Are we about to get our first look at the next Oscar best picture winner? The last five movies to take that award premiered at one of the three fall film festivals — Venice, Telluride and Toronto – now upon us. That could change this year as there are several intriguing, late-arriving movies coming from first-class filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson, Richard Linklater and Ridley Scott.
Still, the movies listed below — premiering in Venice, Telluride and Toronto — will likely constitute much of the meat of this year’s Oscar race. (Also factor in “Dunkirk,” Sundance standouts “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound,” and Cannes favorites “Wonderstruck” and “The Florida Project.”) Here’s a look at how the premieres stack up.
‘Battle of the Sexes’
Story: Billie Jean King (Emma Stone) calls Bobby Riggs’ (Steve Carell) bluff in this drama about their famous 1973 tennis match.
Pedigree: Directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris helmed “Little Miss Sunshine.” Writer Simon Beaufoy won an Oscar for “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Best case: Picture. Acting. Screenplay. Game, set, match.
Worst case: Movie’s timely feminist themes get lost in a series of unforced errors by the filmmakers.
‘Breathe’
Story: Andy Serkis makes his directorial debut with this portrait of Robin and Diana Cavendish (Andrew Garfield and Claire Foy), an adventurous couple who refuse to wave the white flag after Robin is diagnosed with polio.
Pedigree: Garfield earned an Oscar nomination for last year’s “Hacksaw Ridge.” Costar Claire Foy received Emmy love for “The Crown.”
Best case: It’s a touching story of triumph and true love that reduces voters to puddles. Worst case: Rookie director Serkis hews too closely to the conventions of the genre, and the film fails to earn crucial critical support.
‘The Children Act’
Story: London judge (Emma Thompson) presides over the case of a young man (Fionn Whitehead) refusing a life-saving blood transfusion because of his religious beliefs. Pedigree: The last Ian McEwan adaptation, “Atonement,” earned seven Oscar nominations. Best case: Movie finds a distributor at Toronto eager to give it a prime release date and awards-season push. Worst case: Film leaves Toronto with an uncertain future.
‘The Current War’
Story: Thomas Edison (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Westinghouse (Michael Shannon) jockey to determine whose electrical system will power the United States.
Pedigree: Director Alfonso GomezRejon’s first feature, “Me and Earl and the Dying Girl,” took two prizes at Sundance in 2015. Best case: Shannon and Cumberbatch generate plenty of sparks. (Sorry.) Worst case: More perspiration than inspiration.
‘Darkest Hour’
Story: Winston Churchill (Gary Oldman) keeps Great Britain’s upper lip stiff in the early days of World War II.
Pedigree: Oldman is good enough to (almost) make us forget that Michael Gambon and John Lithgow have already killed it playing Churchill in recent TV projects. Best case: Director Joe Wright gets his mojo back after recent misfires “Anna Karenina” and “Pan.”
Worst case: Viewers’ minds drift midfilm back to Wright’s five-minute Dunkirk tracking shot from “Atonement.”
‘Downsizing’
Story: A man (Matt Damon) literally shrinks himself to simplify his life in Alexander Payne’s social satire.
Pedigree: Payne has won two Oscars and been nominated six times. His last three movies — “Nebraska,” “The Descendants” and “Sideways” — earned best picture nominations.
Best case: Long-gestating project proves worth the wait, and Payne’s Oscar streak continues. Worst case: Rick Moranis can rest easy.
‘Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool’
Story: Terminally ill actress Gloria Grahame (Annette Bening) turns to an ex-lover (Jamie Bell) for support in this adaptation of Peter Turner’s memoir about his relationship with the Oscar-winning actress.
Pedigree: Bening has four Oscar nominations, though, unlike Grahame, she hasn’t won.
Best case: Bening snags the lead actress nod that many thought she’d receive for last year’s “20th Century Women.”
Worst case: Bening’s fine, but the movie itself is more bad than beautiful.
‘First They Killed My Father’
and viewers to stream the movie on Netflix this month.
Worst case: The movie suffers a similar indifferent fate as another tough-minded Netflix release, “Beasts of No Nation.”
‘Lady Bird’
Story: Rebellious Catholic high school girl (Saoirse Ronan) looks to escape Sacramento and move to New York in Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut.
Pedigree: The talented Ronan already owns two Oscar nominations.
Best case: With producer Scott Rudin and “Moonlight” distributor A24 behind it, Gerwig’s unconventional comedy receives plenty of attention.
Worst case: More Indie Spirit than Oscar. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.)
‘Molly’s Game’
Story: Molly (Jessica Chastain) runs a high-stakes underground poker game that attracts the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio, Ben Affleck, the Russian mob and, eventually, the U.S. government. (No, Affleck and DiCaprio will not be playing themselves.)
Pedigree: Oscar-winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin makes his directorial debut in this adaptation of Molly Bloom’s memoir. The always-interesting Chastain has two nominations herself.
Best case: Sorkin translates his rat-a-tat-tat writing style into kinetic filmmaking.
Worst case: Way too many walk and talks.
‘mother!’
Story: Uninvited guests threaten the tranquillity of a couple’s home in this psychological thriller from Darren Aronofsky.
Pedigree: The ensemble — Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris and Michelle Pfeiffer — have 13 Oscar nominations among them.
Best case: That exclamation point in the title isn’t false advertising, with Aronofsky delivering a freaky shock-fest along the lines of “Black Swan.”
Worst case: It’s not half as loopy as Aronofsky’s “Noah.”
‘Our Souls at Night’
Story: Elderly widow (Jane Fonda) pays a social call to aging widower (Robert Redford) in a drama about reinvention and second chances.
Pedigree: Fonda and Redford, celebrating the golden anniversary of their first movie, “Barefoot in the Park,” need no introduction.
Best case: Delicate character study reveals the screen legends at their best.
Worst case: More an exercise in nostalgia than meaning.
‘The Shape of Water’
Story: A lonely, mute janitor (Sally Hawkins) discovers a classified experiment in a Cold War-era government laboratory.
Pedigree: Writer-director Guillermo del Toro scored screenplay and foreign-language film nods for “Pan’s Labyrinth.”
Best case: Dreamy Del Toro fairy tale marks a return to form for the filmmaker and showcases the talented Hawkins.
Worst case: Complaints continue that Del Toro’s work sports more style than substance.
‘Stronger’
Story: After losing his legs in the Boston Marathon bombing, Jeff Bauman (Jake Gyllenhaal) adjusts to his new life and resolves to walk again.
Pedigree: Gyllenhaal joined the Oscar club 12 years ago with “Brokeback Mountain.”
Best case: Remember how Gyllenhaal was robbed for “Nightcrawler”? The reception for his work here rights that wrong.
Worst case: Gyllenhaal winds up better remembered for his nutty turn in “Okja.”
‘Suburbicon’
Story: Nerdy ’50s dad (Matt Damon) seeks revenge after mobsters come collecting a debt in this crime comedy written by George Clooney, Grant Heslov and the Coen brothers and directed by Clooney. Pedigree: Coens! Clooney! Best case: The Coens’ script elevates Clooney’s directorial game, resulting in a cool comic lark. Worst case: It’s all too evident why the script had been in the Coens’ drawer for the past 30 years.
‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’
Story: Frustrated mother (Frances McDormand) puts pressure on police to solve her daughter’s murder. Yes, billboards are involved.
Pedigree: Writer-director Martin McDonagh earned an Oscar nomination for writing “In Bruges.”
Best case: Movie earns the kind of acclaim that prompts Fox Searchlight to buy plenty of billboards on its behalf.
Worst case: The total buy is literally just three billboards.
‘Victoria & Abdul’
Story: It’s about the friendship between Queen Victoria (Judi Dench) and her younger Indian servant (Ali Fazal).
Pedigree: Academy members loved “Philomena,” the last collaboration between Dench and director Stephen Frears.
Best case: Who are we kidding? There’s almost no way Dench doesn’t get nominated for playing a queen in a charming Stephen Frears film.
Worst case: Dench-as-royalty fatigue becomes a thing. And maybe voters got their fill of the monarchy recently while binge-watching “The Crown” on Netflix.