STATS CORNER

Readers of the Dodgers Dugout newsletter often ask why the team doesn’t bunt more. The reason: Analytics show that a bunt is a waste of an out. Research has shown that the odds of scoring a run with a runner on first and zero outs are greater than the odds of scoring a run with a runner on second and one out. Similar conclusions were reached for late-inning situations, including the ninth.

But what about near the end of the game, when one run means the difference? Well, this was researched in 2002, and a similar conclusion was reached. The win expectancy for a home team trailing by one in the bottom of the ninth was higher with a runner on first and nobody out than it is with a runner on second and one out. And that theory holds out in multiple late-inning situations.

With that research in mind, and with analytics-driven research an important part of modern-day front offices, you see why the bunt has fallen out of favor. Here’s a look at the number of successful sacrifice bunts projected for this season, as well as the numbers from previous years:

2018 (projected): 804 bunts, 0.165 per game 2017: 925, 0.190 2007: 1,540, 0.317 1997: 1,547, 0.341 1987: 1,455, 0.346 1977: 1,764, 0.419 1967: 1,480, 0.457 1957: 1,115, 0.451 1947: 1,406, 0.566 1937: 1,420, 0.573 1927: 3,183, 1.29 1917: 3,079, 1.24 1907: 2,602, 1.06 All data courtesy of baseballreference.com.