STAT CORNER
The Favorite Toy is a method invented by Bill James that takes into account a player’s age and performance to predict how likely he is to reach career milestones. Last week we looked at hitters; this week it’s the top 10 active pitchers in wins and strikeouts (as of Thursday) and the chances, represented as a percentage, that Favorite Toy predicts they have of reaching 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts.
300 wins
1. Bartolo Colon ............ 245 wins, 0%
2. CC Sabathia ......................... 243, 8%
3. Justin Verlander .................. 198, 4%
4. Zack Greinke ...................... 183, 12%
5. Jon Lester ................................ 171, 1%
6. Felix Hernandez .................. 168, 0%
7. Max Scherzer ....................... 154, 8%
8. Cole Hamels ......................... 152, 0%
9. Ervin Santana ...................... 149, 0%
10. Clayton Kershaw ............... 147, 17%
3,000 strikeouts
1. CC Sabathia .............. 2,923 Ks, 97%
2. Justin Verlander ........... 2,599, 97%
3. Bartolo Colon ................... 2,522, 0%
4. Felix Hernandez ........... 2,436, 59%
5. Zack Greinke .................. 2,373, 83%
6. Cole Hamels .................... 2,341, 56%
7. Max Scherzer .................. 2,338, 97%
8. Clayton Kershaw ........... 2,203, 97%
9. James Shields ................... 2,184, 7%
10. Jon Lester ....................... 2,135, 49%