SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, “Vice” Marina de Tavira, “Roma” Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” Emma Stone, “The Favourite” Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Winner: King

Possible alternative: De Tavira

Analysis: Supporting actress used to function as the Oscars’ wild-card category, a place where surprises — often strange (Whoopi Goldberg, Marisa Tomei), sometimes absolutely shocking (Juliette Binoche over Lauren Bacall) — would happen regularly. I miss that. The winner of the Screen Actors Guild Award has been the winner of the Oscar for the last nine years, starting with Mo’Nique (“Precious”) and going through Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) last year.

As SAG Award winner Emily Blunt was not nominated here, that streak will be broken, providing a little suspense for once. King won the Golden Globe for her beautiful turn as the strong, loving mother in “Beale Street,” and she has taken many critics group prizes too. If Lee and his co-writers prevail over Barry Jenkins for adapted screenplay, this could be one place to reward Jenkins’ powerful film.(Nicholas Britell’s score would be another.)

Should De Tavira pull off an upset and provide the evening with a true surprise, then you can feel confident that “Roma” will sweep through the ceremony.