USC draws big money as the underdog
Editor’s note: Each week, VSiN.com experts will provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action involving NFL and local college and pro games. Fogle analyzes the games of Los Angeles-area pro and college teams. Tuley shares his best NFL bets:
Money continued to pour in on USC and UCLA through the week in Las Vegas. But boundaries for professional bettors, or “sharps,” have become apparent.
USC opened as a sevenpoint home underdog to No. 7 Oregon at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. Sharps liked the Trojans at that number, causing other sportsbooks to open with Oregon -5 or lower. USC interest continued to show at +5 and +4.5. Stores testing a four-point spread have started to see interest on the Ducks, suggesting the line could settle at 4.5 on game day.
UCLA opened at Circa as a 4.5-point favorite over Colorado at the Rose Bowl. Sharps jumped in quickly on a hot home favorite facing a poor traveler coming off a heartbreaking loss. UCLA covered in its last two games by 22 and 13 points against Stanford and Arizona State. Colorado was crushed at Oregon and Washington State before losing a gut-punch finish to USC at home last Friday night.
Straggler stores put UCLA on the board at -5.5 or -6. Favorite money still flowed until the key number of 7 became widely available. Sharps have established that they will bet UCLA aggressively at -6 or less. Game-day action will tell us whether -7 or -7.5 flips perceived value to Colorado.
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The red-hot Green Bay Packers come to Carson on Sunday fresh off a 31-24 victory at Kansas City. Green Bay is now fourth on the futures board to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate in Las Vegas. The only teams at 10/1 or lower entering Week 9 were New England 3/2, New Orleans 5/1, San Francisco 7/1 and Green Bay 10/1. The Chargers are a distant 60/1 after a 3-5 start in which they are 2-4-2 against the spread (ATS).
Sharp betting has been divided between the Packers and Chargers. There’s clear interest on Green Bay at the key number of -3. But value bettors have come in on the Chargers at +3.5.
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The Lakers will play their first true road games of the season in Texas. They face Dallas on Friday and San Antonio on Sunday. The Lakers will be fresh at the end of an easy week, having crushed Charlotte, 120-101, and Memphis, 120-91, covering the spread by 5.5 and 17.5 points, respectively.
The Clippers will be out for revenge Sunday against the Utah Jazz at Staples Center. The Clippers weren’t competitive Wednesday as 6.5-point underdogs in a 11096 loss in Salt Lake City, a game Kawhi Leonard sat out for “load management.” That point spread likely would have closed near pick’em had Leonard suited up.
NFL picks
Being a “dog-or-pass” bettor takes intestinal fortitude, as it goes against the instinct to bet the better team. Even though it hasn’t worked as well the last two weeks with our NFL picks in The Times — though underdogs were 8-7 against the spread (ATS) in Week 8 if you bet them all — it pays off in the long run.
These examples may spark some memories: the Washington Nationals in the just-completed World Series; Clemson over Alabama in the last College Football Playoff championship game and countless March Madness games.
This week the Indianapolis Colts opened as one-point underdog at Pittsburgh, but since then the Colts have been bet into the role of favorite. So now I would pass. It’s tempting to say, “I thought all along they should be favored, so what’s the harm in laying a point or two?” But I’ve seen too many times in which I thought — and acted — on that only to lose by not being contrarian.
There are only four bestbet underdogs for NFL Week 9:
Washington Redskins +9.5 at Buffalo Bills
I respect the Bills defense, but with their methodical offense they shouldn’t be favored by this many points. The Redskins cashed for us last Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, and I expect a similar result here as Case Keenum does just enough to keep the Redskins within the number.
Detroit Lions +2 at Oakland Raiders
The wrong team is favored here. While the Raiders have suffered three blowout losses, the Lions have been more competitive; they’ve just struggled to pull out close games. I’ll take the more battle-tested team, especially because I keep thinking of Aaron Rodgers dissecting the Oakland secondary two weeks ago and expect Matthew Stafford to do the same.
Chargers +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
This is the time of year when the Chargers usually start to play better, which we saw a little bit Sunday in their minor upset of the Chicago Bears. Besides, the Green Bay defense isn’t as strong as its stats and reputation make it out to be. The Chargers should figure out how to use Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to help ease some of the pass rush on Philip Rivers.
New York Giants +7 vs. Dallas Cowboys, Monday
The Giants are coming off a spread-covering loss at Detroit; the Cowboys had a bye. Dallas had its worst game of the season at MetLife Stadium in its 24-22 loss to the New York Jets, so that may be haunted house.
Last week in The Times: 2-3.
Season: 22-18.