Rams offer intriguing strategy

Editor’s note: Each week, VSiN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action involving NFL, local college and pro games. Fogle analyzes the games of Los Angelesarea teams. Tuley shares his best NFL bets.

Fans thinking of betting on the Rams to win the NFC championship or Super Bowl should consider a superior strategy.

The defending NFC champions are one of the most underrated teams of this season at 6-2 against the spread (ATS), tied with New Orleans for best in the league. Yet they’re priced about 11/1 or 12/1 to repeat as conference champs, and are 22/1 or even 30/1 to win the Super Bowl. Great odds, right? Not really. Not at 5-3 and in third place in the NFC West. Based on Las Vegas odds, the Rams have a 67% chance of winning Sunday at Pittsburgh, meaning there’s a 33% chance that those championship odds becoming even longer. And even a win against the Steelers might not shorten the odds much, because on the horizon are games against Baltimore (6-2), Seattle (7-2), at Dallas (5-3) and at San Francisco (8-0).

Odds at Circa Sports in Las Vegas give the Rams about a 9% chance of winning the division. William Hill is 12%. That means there’s roughly a 90% chance the Rams will miss the playoffs or need to sweep as a wild card for futures tickets to cash.

A superior betting option is to see where the Rams stand in about a month. If they fall off the pace in a crowded wild-card race, you saved your money. If they surge, you can then begin what many people call a

“rolling parlay.” Bet the Rams to win any game they need to qualify for the postseason, then roll over your return — stake and profit — game by game through the playoffs.

Whatever stake you were considering for a futures bet, start with that as your risk in the first game.

Riding that to an NFC title is likely to pay better than 11/1 or 12/1. Riding that through a Super Bowl win would probably pay better than 25/1 or 30/1. If the Rams fail in the playoffs, your futures bet would have lost anyway.

Futures prices rarely pay off at true odds or better. Rolling parlays create better returns because your money compounds more effectively.

The Rams opened the week as a four-point favorite at Pittsburgh, but that has fallen to 3.5.

USC opened as a -1.5-point favorite on the road at Arizona State Saturday. However, the Sun Devils are now twopoint home favorites at -2 despite sitting at 2-6-1 ATS this season. USC has fallen to 4-5 ATS.

UCLA has a bye this week after covering its last three spreads by 14 at Stanford, 13 vs. Arizona State and 10.5 vs. Colorado.

In the NBA, bettors will be attracted to Friday night’s game at Staples Center matching Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat vs. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers. The Heat covered by 32 points in a 129-100 win over Houston in Butler’s return to the lineup. We’ll see whether Butler gets scratched for load management on the second night of a back-toback. The Heat played at Phoenix on Thursday.

NFL picks

In Las Vegas’ biggest handicapping contests, the five most-selected teams went 0-4-1 ATS in the Westgate SuperContest and 0-5 in the Circa Sports Million. That’s typically good news for bettors who go with the underdogs like we do here. Here are five more live underdogs for Sunday:

Buffalo +3 at Cleveland

The Bills aren’t the flashiest team to bet on. They rely mostly on a No. 3-ranked defense. But why are people still betting the overrated and underachieving Browns?

Cincinnati +10 vs. Baltimore

The Ravens (6-2) are coming off a 37-20 win over previously unbeaten New England and the Bengals are the NFL’s last winless team at 0-8. But the Ravens are only 3-4-1 ATS and don’t always win by margin, while the Bengals have covered against playoff-bound teams such as Seattle in Week 1, Buffalo in Week 3 and these same Ravens just four weeks ago. And that was in Baltimore; this is at home.

Carolina +5 at Green Bay

Kyle Allen has filled in admirably for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffery makes the Panthers’ offense go, which makes them a live underdog heading into Green Bay. The Packers’ defense was exposed again in a 26-11 loss to the Chargers. The Panthers can do the same thing.

Miami +10.5 at Indianapolis

The lowly Dolphins have actually covered four consecutive games, and last week they upset the New York Jets, 26-18. The Colts come in off a tough loss to the Steelers. Expect the Colts to squeak out another victory but the Dolphins to stay close enough to cover the spread.

Minnesota +3 at Dallas The stats give the edge to the Cowboys — No. 1 vs. No. 6 in yards per game, No. 6 vs. No. 7 in yards allowed. But the Vikings can be trusted more on both offense and defense. Plus, Mike Zimmer has a big coaching edge over Jason Garrett.

Last week in The Times: 1-3 (plus win on Arizona +10.5 on Thursday Night Football for early online readers). Season: 24-21.